Since I moved to Minnesota in December 2011, I've spent a considerable amount of time playing cards at both Canterbury Park and Running Aces. Which one I choose to play at depends on a multitude of factors, including but limited to (1) time of day (2) day of the week (3) weather (4) traffic (5) time of year (6) game selection, etc. For example, I prefer to play at Canterbury on nights when a lot of the Survival tournaments are running, and at Running Aces when an Omaha Hi game is being spread. I'm not a big fan of limit hold'em, so if I want to play during the day I will usually choose Running Aces, as their 2-100 spread game runs probably 20 hours per day. However, I also enjoy playing the 6/12 Omaha 8 game at both rooms, so sometimes I will venture down to Canterbury during the day.
Do I have a favorite between the two? I can't say I do. Although it seems like there's a friendly rivalry between the two rooms, I have no intention to choose a side. A true poker player should recognize and embrace the benefits of both rooms. Compared to the options I was given back in Lansing, Michigan, Canterbury and Running Aces are both fantastic. If I wanted to play a decent game or tournament, I had to drive at least an hour to either Soaring Eagle Casino and Resort in Mount Pleasant or Motor City Casino in downtown Detroit (yuck!). The fact that there is two card rooms within 30 minutes of my residence that offer daily tournaments and cash games is truly a treat! However, that doesn't mean there isn't advantages or disadvantages to each room.
One advantage to playing at Canterbury Park is the Survival tournaments. If you enjoy no-limit holdem cash games Survivals are the closest thing you will find to them in Minnesota. Canterbury recently started spreading $1000 and $2500 Survivals each Tuesday, starting between 6:00 and 7:00 pm. Although I haven't played in any of those games, it seems like some of the best players in Minnesota are playing in them, which is great to see. Canterbury also has the advantage of a larger player pool, via closer proximity to more populated areas than Running Aces. However, considering their location, I think Running Aces does a great job attracting players. Their comp system is fantastic and the staff values the opinions of players significantly more than your average poker room.
One advantage to playing at Running Aces is the daily tournaments. Although the term #BestStructureAround has been thrown around a little bit too much, it's definitely true. Running Aces has put a significant effort into improving their tournament structures over the past year, and hopefully the #'s show. I know that I'm far more likely to play a tournament at Running Aces today than I was 12-18 months ago. However, just because Running Aces has slightly better tournament structures doesn't mean I'm not going to play tournaments at Canterbury too. I love the $235 Wednesday night tournament there because I get a chance to play against the best players in Minnesota, plus the 30-minute blind levels is an added bonus. Canterbury has also improved several of their tournament structures in the past year, and those efforts are definitely appreciated.
Regardless of the advantages/disadvantages of each room, one key factor that keeps me coming back (besides my passion for the game) is the customer service each room provides. I've had very productive conversations with tournament directors at both Canterbury and Running Aces regarding structure improvements. Considering I'm only 24 years old and don't have an established reputation in the Minnesota Poker Community, I haven't expected much from these conversations. However, they have been very productive. It's pretty evident that the opinions of individuals like me are not only valued, but taken into account regarding changes to tournament structures for the better of the players. Both rooms don't have to listen to a younger poker player like me to be successful, so I truly appreciate the efforts Canterbury and Running Aces have made recently to not only make their players happy, but also improve their business. I'm sure these efforts will continue, and I'm excited to continue playing at both rooms for a long time.
Tuesday, October 22, 2013
Monday, October 14, 2013
#TeamPokerJoker and the Optimum at Running Aces
Although this was already announced via Twitter last Saturday, I'm proud to say that I have joined #TeamPokerJoker! As an active member of the Minnesota poker community as well as the virtual community on Twitter, I've been familiar with the #TeamPokerJoker team and brand since its' inception earlier in the year. It's been pretty awesome seeing the team grow from its stages of infancy to where it is today, as Marc has done a fantastic job branding and marketing the team. Considering the strong core of players we have, I know our team has a bright future in the Minnesota Poker Community and hopefully will continue to expand and succeed in many ways. I consider myself very fortunate to be a member of the team and am excited to prove myself to my new teammates on the felt. You can find the Team Poker Joker website here if you're interested in learning more about the team: #TeamPokerJoker
In addition to joining #TeamPokerJoker, I was able to play two MTT's this week. I managed to sneak into the Optimum up at Running Aces yesterday afternoon around 4:30 PM, right when registration closed! When I arrived at the table the blinds were 400/800/100 ante and I was sitting on 9.8K from 15K starting, good for 12 BB's and a dream! As much as I don't enjoy being short stacked like that, I feel like I play a short stack in a very calculated mathematical manner. I'm not afraid to ship it all in with marginal hands from late position or the blinds to try and pick up free chips. Fortunately in this tournament, I found some great spots. I shipped 88 from the BB when two players limped to me, and promptly received two folds, then picked up AQ in the SB the next hand and shipped it on the BB and received another fold. I then proceeded to bust my friend Burke with A6dd vs QJo all in on a KQ2dd flop, catching an ace to bring my stack up to 22K for the final table.
Once we reached the final table I was pretty comfortable with my chip position. Two of the stronger players at the table had mountains of chips, and I was only one double up away from having a chance. I figured I could wait to pick my spots, as a few players were < 15BB. Unfortunately, in the first orbit I faced a really awkward spot that I would love to hear feedback on. UTG+1 raised to 2200 at 500/100 9 handed, I reraised with QQ in MP to 5600, starting the hand with 22K effective, HJ and CO fold, and the B insta-raises to 15K, effectively putting UTG+1 and me all in. UTG+1 folded, and I was faced with a tough decision. I had committed about 25% of my chips with a premium hand, but was faced with a 4-bet from a player I had limited information on. Online this is a snap call, as I'm most likely up against AK, but the 4-better had shown a lot of strength in his bet sizing and seemed very confident in his hand. I narrowed his perceived range down to JJ, KK, AK, and AA. After pondering my decision for a minute or so I decided to fold. I would still have 16 BB 9 handed, and was comfortable with how the table was playing. After the hand I told the 4-better that "I folded a pair" and he told me "good fold." Was it a good fold? I'm not sure. Anyone think folding QQ to a 4-bet 9 handed with 20BB is bad in a live MTT? Would love to hear your thoughts.
After that hand I was able to pick up a little bit of traction. I shipped 99 and was called by the same player with AK, the board ran out clean and I was back up to 25K in chips. However, several hands later I busted. Here is my bustout hand: folded to me in the SB with eff. 27K (won the blinds hand before) at 500/1000/100 ante, I pick up AhKh and raised to 3000, same player flats the BB for 2000 more. We head to a flop of Qh6s2s. This is a decent texture for me, as it's difficult to put the BB on a Q. Realistically he's 3-betting me with AQ and maybe KQ, and flatting with QJ, maybe KQ, and maybe Q10 and Q9 if he thinks he can outplay me post flop. I figure his range is pairs 22-88, suited connectors 87 and higher, and broadway hands like J10, KJ, etc. I continued for 3500 on the Q62hss flop with my AhKh, and the BB raised me to 11K, effectively half my chips. This raise surprised me, as I couldn't figure out what he was trying to represent. If he had a hand like 66,22, KQ or Qxss wouldn't he flat and let me keep barreling my hand? I can understand this bet if he has a hand like 33-55, 77, 88, a flush draw, or QJ and Q10 as he would be put to a tough decision if a K or A came on the turn and I fired a second barrel. However, this is a great texture to semi-bluff or bluff on, as it's tough for me to commit all my chips on this board unless I have a Q or better, or a flush draw. Is going all in here the best play or is folding? If I fold I'm back to 20K in chips and sitting with a decent but not preferable stack, but if I 3-bet all in for 13K more I could get the BB to fold a hand like 33-55, and maybe even a hand like 77 or 88 if he thinks he is drawing to two outs. Would you shove all in here or would you fold?
I decided to shove all in and the BB called pretty quickly. He tabled his hand pretty quickly, and he had a hand that made a lot of sense in this spot: 109ss for a flush draw and two live cards. I really like his bet here, as he can get me to fold a lot of hands that are better than 10 high. Even if I do have a big hand like AA, KK, AQ, KQ, he still has 35% equity against my hand. He clearly put me on hand that couldn't beat a Q and he was absolutely right, and I put him on a hand that couldn't beat a Q and was right too! Unfortunately for me a spade spiked on the turn and I was drawing dead. Regardless I am happy with how I played the hand, putting in 21K more all in to win 55K and 48% equity. I truly think the BB folds a small pair in this spot most the time.
Really interested to hear your feedback on these two hands. Both these spots were pretty awkward and I am happy with my play, but I am always interested in hearing what others have to say in these situations. Thanks to Running Aces for hosting a great tournament with a great structure, as both Running Aces and Canterbury have put a decent effort into improving their tournament structures in the past year. I will definitely be back to play the Optimum sometime in the near future!
Thanks for reading and I will update again soon in a post about local tournament structures!
- Rob @robbrereton
| It's me! Playing some 2-5 PLO @ Aria in August |
Once we reached the final table I was pretty comfortable with my chip position. Two of the stronger players at the table had mountains of chips, and I was only one double up away from having a chance. I figured I could wait to pick my spots, as a few players were < 15BB. Unfortunately, in the first orbit I faced a really awkward spot that I would love to hear feedback on. UTG+1 raised to 2200 at 500/100 9 handed, I reraised with QQ in MP to 5600, starting the hand with 22K effective, HJ and CO fold, and the B insta-raises to 15K, effectively putting UTG+1 and me all in. UTG+1 folded, and I was faced with a tough decision. I had committed about 25% of my chips with a premium hand, but was faced with a 4-bet from a player I had limited information on. Online this is a snap call, as I'm most likely up against AK, but the 4-better had shown a lot of strength in his bet sizing and seemed very confident in his hand. I narrowed his perceived range down to JJ, KK, AK, and AA. After pondering my decision for a minute or so I decided to fold. I would still have 16 BB 9 handed, and was comfortable with how the table was playing. After the hand I told the 4-better that "I folded a pair" and he told me "good fold." Was it a good fold? I'm not sure. Anyone think folding QQ to a 4-bet 9 handed with 20BB is bad in a live MTT? Would love to hear your thoughts.
After that hand I was able to pick up a little bit of traction. I shipped 99 and was called by the same player with AK, the board ran out clean and I was back up to 25K in chips. However, several hands later I busted. Here is my bustout hand: folded to me in the SB with eff. 27K (won the blinds hand before) at 500/1000/100 ante, I pick up AhKh and raised to 3000, same player flats the BB for 2000 more. We head to a flop of Qh6s2s. This is a decent texture for me, as it's difficult to put the BB on a Q. Realistically he's 3-betting me with AQ and maybe KQ, and flatting with QJ, maybe KQ, and maybe Q10 and Q9 if he thinks he can outplay me post flop. I figure his range is pairs 22-88, suited connectors 87 and higher, and broadway hands like J10, KJ, etc. I continued for 3500 on the Q62hss flop with my AhKh, and the BB raised me to 11K, effectively half my chips. This raise surprised me, as I couldn't figure out what he was trying to represent. If he had a hand like 66,22, KQ or Qxss wouldn't he flat and let me keep barreling my hand? I can understand this bet if he has a hand like 33-55, 77, 88, a flush draw, or QJ and Q10 as he would be put to a tough decision if a K or A came on the turn and I fired a second barrel. However, this is a great texture to semi-bluff or bluff on, as it's tough for me to commit all my chips on this board unless I have a Q or better, or a flush draw. Is going all in here the best play or is folding? If I fold I'm back to 20K in chips and sitting with a decent but not preferable stack, but if I 3-bet all in for 13K more I could get the BB to fold a hand like 33-55, and maybe even a hand like 77 or 88 if he thinks he is drawing to two outs. Would you shove all in here or would you fold?
I decided to shove all in and the BB called pretty quickly. He tabled his hand pretty quickly, and he had a hand that made a lot of sense in this spot: 109ss for a flush draw and two live cards. I really like his bet here, as he can get me to fold a lot of hands that are better than 10 high. Even if I do have a big hand like AA, KK, AQ, KQ, he still has 35% equity against my hand. He clearly put me on hand that couldn't beat a Q and he was absolutely right, and I put him on a hand that couldn't beat a Q and was right too! Unfortunately for me a spade spiked on the turn and I was drawing dead. Regardless I am happy with how I played the hand, putting in 21K more all in to win 55K and 48% equity. I truly think the BB folds a small pair in this spot most the time.
Really interested to hear your feedback on these two hands. Both these spots were pretty awkward and I am happy with my play, but I am always interested in hearing what others have to say in these situations. Thanks to Running Aces for hosting a great tournament with a great structure, as both Running Aces and Canterbury have put a decent effort into improving their tournament structures in the past year. I will definitely be back to play the Optimum sometime in the near future!
Thanks for reading and I will update again soon in a post about local tournament structures!
- Rob @robbrereton
Tuesday, October 8, 2013
Ultimate Overlay Tournament Recap
Hi guys, since my last blog received so many hits (over 100!) I've decided to change my focus to poker for the time being. For those that are hoping for more entries in which I dive deep into my emotional past and the various existential crises I've experienced, don't expect too much more of that. I look at poker in a very matter of fact, mathematical way. Regardless, I'm excited to share my insights with my followers and look forward to hearing what you think. So, if you follow on Twitter, @robbrereton , please provide feedback if you wish!
Last Thursday I played the Ultimate Overlay Tournament at Canterbury Park in Shakopee, MN. This tournament, now in it's second year, is the brain child of Winmark CEO John Morgan, who has had an enormous positive impact on the Minnesota poker community. Morgan pledged to donate a portion of his winnings in the $111,111 One Drop this summer at the WSOP to the Ultimate Overlay prizepool. Although Morgan did not cash in the event, the event did raise over $550,000 for Guy Laliberte's One Drop Charity. Regardless, the Ultimate Overlay Tournament and Canterbury Park guaranteed a $100,000 prize pool for a buy in of only $130. The tournament was capped at 850 players (no rebuys) and divided into four Day 1's.
For the second straight year, I decided to play Day 1D. Last year I bought my ticket in July and I did the same this year, purchasing it from a friend who I play the Survival tournaments with at Canterbury. There's a tremendous amount of value in this tournament considering the number of recreational players that enter, so I always make sure to buy a ticket early in fear of it selling out! I was seated at Table 20 Seat 5 and arrived at the end of the first level (right on time for me!) to a table full of unknowns and Mike Schneider in the one seat. For those that don't know who Mike is he has over one million in both live and online earnings, winning the FPC Main Event in 2012 for a cool $63K. When I sat down Mike already had 50K in front of him, 2.5x starting stack, so I expected him to play almost every pot considering he was 500BB deep.
After folding the first 15 hands or so I finally played a hand at 100/200. Dealt QJo in the hijack, I called a MP raise to 600, as did the button, SB, BB and an UTG limper. The flop came out J108 rainbow, which is a decent flop for my hand. Unfortunately with 5 players in the hand this texture is one to be cautious with in a multiway pot. The SB led out for 1400, BB fold, UTG called, MP called, and I folded my hand. In this spot I am probably beat or up against drawing hands with massive equity against me like A9, AQ, or KQ. Sure enough a 9 came on the turn, which would've given me a Q high straight. SB led out for 2000, UTG called and MP folded. An A came on the river and SB led out for 3000, UTG instantly shoved all in, and SB folded AJ face up. UTG proceeded to show him KQ, validating my fold as I lose a lot more than 600 chips if I peel the flop!
Next hand I played was at the 200/400 level, I had played very tight up until that point so in this hand I felt like I picked a great spot. The HJ opened to 800 and I picked up 97o in the CO and 3-bet to 2200 with 14,300 behind following my 3-bet. My hope was to iso the original raiser and to see a flop heads up, but the SB, a new player at the table with 50,000 in chips flatted my 3-bet. I had never seen him before but I feel like most players flat 3-bets here with hands like 22-99 and connected broadway hands like QJ, KJ, KQ,A10, AJ, and maybe even AQ and AK if they don't like 4-betting hands that aren't made. The HJ flatted my bet as well and we saw a flop three ways with 6800 in the middle, effectively 2x my stack. I planned on continuing on flops where I either made a pair, two pair, open ender, gut shot + two overs, and naked Ace flops. If I flopped a nut flop like 99x, 77x, 865r, 1086r, I would peel a turn card hoping that a face card hit that connected with one of my opponent's hands. The flop came 1075 rainbow, a great board for me against their perceived hand ranges. The only hands I was really afraid of were 55,88,99, A10 and maybe 10xface if the HJ was opening light. Both the SB and HJ checked to me and I continued for 3300, approximately half the pot. I figured even if the SB or HJ called my flop bet with a hand that beat mine like 88, 99, or a weaker 10, there was still many cards that could come on the turn for me to either barrel them off the hand with a turn shove or to make me the winning hand. After I continued for 3300, the SB thought for 30 seconds and then asked me for a count. I lifted my arms and showed him my chips. 30 seconds later he raised me to 7600, effectively putting me to the test for all my chips, and the HJ folded. I really like his bet right here A LOT, as he is only risking 7,600 chips while essentially making me risk 14,300 to play the hand. I figured he could be making this bet with a hand like 88, 99, A10, and maybe even 10facesuited if he flatted my 3-bet with that pre. I don't think he would make this bet with a set, as he would be getting me to fold hands like AK and AQ that had less than 5% equity vs his hand. However, at the same time I had never played with this player before, so trying to figure out what he was thinking was going to be difficult. After thinking for two minutes and staring him down, I decided to fold. He seemed to feel somewhat confident in his hand, and I would still have 11,000 in chips, good for 27 BB if I folded. What would you do in this spot? Do you think all-in is the right play here?
The next hand I played was at the 300/600 blind level. I was extremely card dead in this tournament, but knew I could get value from a strong hand if I flopped big against a weaker player. Starting with 10,500 in chips, I opened KQsc in the HJ to 1800 after MP2 limped in with 9,000 behind. I considered shoving here, and would've if there was antes, but couldn't justify shipping KQ when if I was called I would probably be racing or dominated. Shipping all in is probably the most +EV play against a table of regulars, but I figured I could get action with a worse K or Q with the 3x raise pre. The BB proceeded to call my raise as did the MP limper and the flop came out 998hhc. Not the greatest flop for me and a tough texture to continue on vs two opponents. Both checked to me and I checked back hoping for a face card on the turn. The turn came an Ah and it was checked around again. The river came a Qs and it was checked to me, I decided to check it back here even though I usually bet this hand. Sure enough the BB turned over A2o and won the pot, thus I was down to 8700 chips and glad I didn't value bet!
My bustout hand was pretty depressing, but a great reason why there is so much value in the Ultimate Overlay tournament. I was dealt A10o in the SB with 7800 behind at 300/600 UTG limped, MP limped, Button limped, and I shipped for 8100 total and 13.5 BB, hoping to elicit folds from all parties or a call from a dominated ace. The BB and UTG folded, but MP began to deliberate heavily. He started the hand with about 11K and would be putting a substantial portion of his chips at risk if he called my all in. I put him on a small pair or a QJ, KJ type hand while he was thinking the call over, but I had seem him play some interesting hands. After two minutes he ended up dropping in the call and the Button folded. I quickly turned over my A10 as I knew he didn't have a dominating ace. After about 10 seconds he slowly turned over... Q3ss... I was honestly in disbelief that he had called my all in, but didn't mind the call at first. The flop came out KQ7, turn Q, river K, and sure enough his Q3 had made a full house and I was bounced from the Ultimate Overlay tournament without winning a hand! I quickly wished my remaining table mates good luck and headed to the bar!
Regardless of the disappointing outcome, I'm glad I got to play the Ultimate Overlay tournament at Canterbury Park. Canterbury Park consistently attracts big, soft fields for their more publicized events, so I always jump at the opportunity to play tournaments like this and would encourage you to do so as well. Although I ran horribly, I had the opportunity to connect with and sweat some friends who were running deep in the tournament, which was really exciting! I'm looking forward to playing the Ultimate Overlay next year, and fortunately I won't be too difficult for me to improve on this year's result. All I need to do is win one hand! :)
Last Thursday I played the Ultimate Overlay Tournament at Canterbury Park in Shakopee, MN. This tournament, now in it's second year, is the brain child of Winmark CEO John Morgan, who has had an enormous positive impact on the Minnesota poker community. Morgan pledged to donate a portion of his winnings in the $111,111 One Drop this summer at the WSOP to the Ultimate Overlay prizepool. Although Morgan did not cash in the event, the event did raise over $550,000 for Guy Laliberte's One Drop Charity. Regardless, the Ultimate Overlay Tournament and Canterbury Park guaranteed a $100,000 prize pool for a buy in of only $130. The tournament was capped at 850 players (no rebuys) and divided into four Day 1's.
For the second straight year, I decided to play Day 1D. Last year I bought my ticket in July and I did the same this year, purchasing it from a friend who I play the Survival tournaments with at Canterbury. There's a tremendous amount of value in this tournament considering the number of recreational players that enter, so I always make sure to buy a ticket early in fear of it selling out! I was seated at Table 20 Seat 5 and arrived at the end of the first level (right on time for me!) to a table full of unknowns and Mike Schneider in the one seat. For those that don't know who Mike is he has over one million in both live and online earnings, winning the FPC Main Event in 2012 for a cool $63K. When I sat down Mike already had 50K in front of him, 2.5x starting stack, so I expected him to play almost every pot considering he was 500BB deep.
After folding the first 15 hands or so I finally played a hand at 100/200. Dealt QJo in the hijack, I called a MP raise to 600, as did the button, SB, BB and an UTG limper. The flop came out J108 rainbow, which is a decent flop for my hand. Unfortunately with 5 players in the hand this texture is one to be cautious with in a multiway pot. The SB led out for 1400, BB fold, UTG called, MP called, and I folded my hand. In this spot I am probably beat or up against drawing hands with massive equity against me like A9, AQ, or KQ. Sure enough a 9 came on the turn, which would've given me a Q high straight. SB led out for 2000, UTG called and MP folded. An A came on the river and SB led out for 3000, UTG instantly shoved all in, and SB folded AJ face up. UTG proceeded to show him KQ, validating my fold as I lose a lot more than 600 chips if I peel the flop!
Next hand I played was at the 200/400 level, I had played very tight up until that point so in this hand I felt like I picked a great spot. The HJ opened to 800 and I picked up 97o in the CO and 3-bet to 2200 with 14,300 behind following my 3-bet. My hope was to iso the original raiser and to see a flop heads up, but the SB, a new player at the table with 50,000 in chips flatted my 3-bet. I had never seen him before but I feel like most players flat 3-bets here with hands like 22-99 and connected broadway hands like QJ, KJ, KQ,A10, AJ, and maybe even AQ and AK if they don't like 4-betting hands that aren't made. The HJ flatted my bet as well and we saw a flop three ways with 6800 in the middle, effectively 2x my stack. I planned on continuing on flops where I either made a pair, two pair, open ender, gut shot + two overs, and naked Ace flops. If I flopped a nut flop like 99x, 77x, 865r, 1086r, I would peel a turn card hoping that a face card hit that connected with one of my opponent's hands. The flop came 1075 rainbow, a great board for me against their perceived hand ranges. The only hands I was really afraid of were 55,88,99, A10 and maybe 10xface if the HJ was opening light. Both the SB and HJ checked to me and I continued for 3300, approximately half the pot. I figured even if the SB or HJ called my flop bet with a hand that beat mine like 88, 99, or a weaker 10, there was still many cards that could come on the turn for me to either barrel them off the hand with a turn shove or to make me the winning hand. After I continued for 3300, the SB thought for 30 seconds and then asked me for a count. I lifted my arms and showed him my chips. 30 seconds later he raised me to 7600, effectively putting me to the test for all my chips, and the HJ folded. I really like his bet right here A LOT, as he is only risking 7,600 chips while essentially making me risk 14,300 to play the hand. I figured he could be making this bet with a hand like 88, 99, A10, and maybe even 10facesuited if he flatted my 3-bet with that pre. I don't think he would make this bet with a set, as he would be getting me to fold hands like AK and AQ that had less than 5% equity vs his hand. However, at the same time I had never played with this player before, so trying to figure out what he was thinking was going to be difficult. After thinking for two minutes and staring him down, I decided to fold. He seemed to feel somewhat confident in his hand, and I would still have 11,000 in chips, good for 27 BB if I folded. What would you do in this spot? Do you think all-in is the right play here?
 |
| Down but not out! |
The next hand I played was at the 300/600 blind level. I was extremely card dead in this tournament, but knew I could get value from a strong hand if I flopped big against a weaker player. Starting with 10,500 in chips, I opened KQsc in the HJ to 1800 after MP2 limped in with 9,000 behind. I considered shoving here, and would've if there was antes, but couldn't justify shipping KQ when if I was called I would probably be racing or dominated. Shipping all in is probably the most +EV play against a table of regulars, but I figured I could get action with a worse K or Q with the 3x raise pre. The BB proceeded to call my raise as did the MP limper and the flop came out 998hhc. Not the greatest flop for me and a tough texture to continue on vs two opponents. Both checked to me and I checked back hoping for a face card on the turn. The turn came an Ah and it was checked around again. The river came a Qs and it was checked to me, I decided to check it back here even though I usually bet this hand. Sure enough the BB turned over A2o and won the pot, thus I was down to 8700 chips and glad I didn't value bet!
My bustout hand was pretty depressing, but a great reason why there is so much value in the Ultimate Overlay tournament. I was dealt A10o in the SB with 7800 behind at 300/600 UTG limped, MP limped, Button limped, and I shipped for 8100 total and 13.5 BB, hoping to elicit folds from all parties or a call from a dominated ace. The BB and UTG folded, but MP began to deliberate heavily. He started the hand with about 11K and would be putting a substantial portion of his chips at risk if he called my all in. I put him on a small pair or a QJ, KJ type hand while he was thinking the call over, but I had seem him play some interesting hands. After two minutes he ended up dropping in the call and the Button folded. I quickly turned over my A10 as I knew he didn't have a dominating ace. After about 10 seconds he slowly turned over... Q3ss... I was honestly in disbelief that he had called my all in, but didn't mind the call at first. The flop came out KQ7, turn Q, river K, and sure enough his Q3 had made a full house and I was bounced from the Ultimate Overlay tournament without winning a hand! I quickly wished my remaining table mates good luck and headed to the bar!
Regardless of the disappointing outcome, I'm glad I got to play the Ultimate Overlay tournament at Canterbury Park. Canterbury Park consistently attracts big, soft fields for their more publicized events, so I always jump at the opportunity to play tournaments like this and would encourage you to do so as well. Although I ran horribly, I had the opportunity to connect with and sweat some friends who were running deep in the tournament, which was really exciting! I'm looking forward to playing the Ultimate Overlay next year, and fortunately I won't be too difficult for me to improve on this year's result. All I need to do is win one hand! :)
Tuesday, September 17, 2013
My Poker Story: An Outlet to Deal With Stress Transformed in to a Passion
In light of the recent blog posts by my friends Brooksie and Rooster, I figured I would share my story starting from when I began playing poker to where I am today, and where I would like to see myself in the poker community in the future. Big props to them for keeping it real, I plan on doing the same. Before you start reading this I would like to mention that it wasn't easy for me to write this, but felt like every detail I included was essential in telling my poker story, so bear with me!
Let me begin with a little background on my family. My family lives in Williamston, Michigan, a small suburb of Lansing (the state capitol). I'm the oldest of three kids, with a 22 year old brother who's currently in graduate school in Berkeley, California, and an 18 year old sister who just started college several weeks ago in St Louis, Missouri. My mother and father hail from San Francisco, California, and London, England, respectively, and neither of them supports that I enjoy playing poker in the slightest. To put it in perspective, my father equates playing poker to abusing drugs or alcohol. The irony behind my father's hate for the game is that he is to thank for some of the reason why my brother and I started playing poker! Both my brother and I were very strong math students growing up, thanks in part to my father who really pushed us to be successful in mathematics. My brother really embraced the challenge, as he's now working on his PHD in Mathematics at the University of California @ Berkeley following a math degree from Massachusetts Institute of Technology. I did as well, but only to an extent, finishing with top marks in AP Calculus my junior year of high school, but decided not to progress farther than that in the world of mathematics, as I didn't see the real world applications of subjects like linear algebra, real analysis, etc.
Anyhow, my brother and I really enjoyed chess growing up, so as we grew older the transition into poker was pretty natural. We both enjoyed the mathematical calculations within the game, as well as the game theory and the psychology. My brother purchased a set of plastic red, white, and blue chips and we started playing heads up poker games sporadically starting in summer 2003, the same summer Chris Moneymaker won the WSOP and poker began to boom. As No Limit Texas Hold'em started to boom (that was the only game I knew how to play @ this point in time) more and more of my friends learned to play, and we started playing home games in the summer of 2004. At that time I was very involved with the tennis team @ my high school, and many of my friends on the team had just picked up poker as well, so naturally this led to an increase in games. We continued to play $5-$10 buy in games all throughout high school, but eventually some of us who had part time jobs wanted to play slightly higher stakes. Fortunately, there was a group of guys a year or two older than us who played a $25-$50 buy in game, so some of us would dabble in that game from time to time, usually losing. At the time we never would have guessed it, but from that 'bigger game' came three professional poker players: Wesley Whybrew, who shipped the Sunday Million on Pokerstars for $200K when he was 19 y/o, Greg Peck, and Andrew 'good2cu' Robl who now plays the 'Big Game' in Macau. You can find the earnings for Greg, Wesley, and Andrew in the respective links.
In March 2007, I made the toughest decision of my life. Considering my home life had been somewhat tumultuous from a pretty young age, I knew I needed to get out of Michigan and away from my family to truly allow myself to flourish in many ways without my parents, specifically my father, constantly scrutinizing everything I did. Thus, I decided to leave Michigan and attend St. Olaf College in Northfield, MN. Although the transition was pretty difficult for me, I still think it's the best decision I've ever made. I vividly remember my father's last words to me the day I stepped onto campus, he told me "Robert, make sure you try harder in college than you did in high school." That being said, I did make an attempt to try harder in school, so poker took a backseat for me throughout my freshman year, although I did find a small home game to play in across town at Carleton College, where I was fortunate enough to meet some truly brilliant people whom I was able to form some awesome friendships with. My first foray into the casino poker scene began following my freshman year of college. I had just gotten out of a long term relationship that wasn't healthy for me and needed an outlet, so I started playing poker at the local charity room in Lansing, MI 10-15 minutes from my house. At that time the most popular game was 1-2 No Limit (!!) with a $100 max buy in. With a bankroll of about $500, I was prepared to crush the game! Not sure how I didn't go broke playing that game the summer of 2008, but I ended up winning about $1500 that summer over a sample size of about 100-120 hours.
I continued to play live games during summer and winter breaks throughout college, but also began playing online in Fall 2008 under the screenname: ericmolina. I was very entertained by his antics in the 2006 WSOP so I decided to use his name for my SN. I received a $40 transfer on Full Tilt Poker and jumped into the microstakes SNG's. After busting my first $40 transfer, I slowly ran my 2nd one up throughout my sophomore and junior year's of college. I was generally pretty busy with studying, friends and sports in college so I never put in more than 10-15 hours a week of volume and didn't have a score bigger than $300.
The summer of 2009 was when poker really 'took off' for me. I was part of a group of friends that enjoyed discussing the game and analyzing hands, which was really helpful for me. Unfortunately, at the same time my life at home was getting even more difficult. Although I wasnt verbal sparring with my father as much as I had in year's past, my grandparents had just moved into assisted living. My grandfather, who was 89 at the time, had been suffering from Alzheimer's disease since 2002, and seeing him suffer the way he did was like constantly getting punched in the stomach. I had engaged in some very tense conversations with my mother and her siblings about putting him in assisted living, and strongly pushed for my family to do it back in California several years before they got around to doing it in Michigan, which I vehemently disagreed with. Once he was placed in assisted living in East Lansing, Michigan, I essentially tried to avoid spending time with him at all costs, as it was incredibly depressing seeing someone who was such a great mentor and influence on me suffer so much. Once again poker was a great outlet from the vicissitudes of my family problems, and in July and August 2009 I put some great results together. By this time I had learned how to play PLO and was doing pretty well in a 1-2 HO game that was running @ the local poker room. I also qualified for the Heartland Poker Tour event at Soaring Eagle Casino and Resort, but couldn't play because my aunt and uncle had came out to visit from California to help take care of my grandfather. Regardless, I sold my seat for $1600 and the $1225 profit was the biggest poker score of my career @ the time. I made $6000 that summer playing games that were $200 buy in or less and charted my entire progress. I think I still have the spreadsheet somewhere if anyone wants to see it just for kicks, but I think I ended up making about $15-16 per hour, which at the time I was very excited about!
Fast forward through my junior and senior years of college to summer 2011. I was a recent graduate of St. Olaf, and had taken a job as a Financial Representative for Thrivent Financial for Lutherans back in Lansing, MI contingent on me passing my Series 7 and 66 licensing exams. At that time I was essentially living with a girl that I'd been seeing for a while and wasn't playing as much poker. At the time I applied for and accepted this position I was very content with my not only my girlfriend, but also with my parents, as my father and I were slowly settling our differences. Unfortunately, a lot of this progress fell apart for me. I wasn't motivated to study for my licensing exams, as I learned pretty quickly after a week or so of studying that I didn't want to spend a year being a financial rep, let alone most of my life... In addition, the relationship I was in wasn't going anywhere, and I missed spending time with my college friends IMMENSELY. Once I failed my licensing exams in September 2011, I started grinding on Lock Poker (whoops?) and simultaneously began applying for jobs in Minnesota. Considering the free time I had on my hands that fall, I felt like my poker game grew by leaps and bounds, as I read and commented in poker strategy forums and watched a lot of poker strategy videos. By December 2011, I had found a temporary job in Minnesota and was all set to move back here. Although I was totally broke at the time, I was elated that I was moving back to Minnesota.
Once I moved out here for good in January 2012, I found myself extremely busy with work, my internship with the Obama Campaign, and spending time with my friends. That left poker, and my girlfriend, on the back burner. Throughout the winter of 2012 I only played cards occasionally, as my bankroll dictated that I save for more important expenditures. I started playing more at Running Aces during Summer 2012 and in all honesty, I was kind of a jerk to players and dealers alike. Although I could tell ppl respected my game, I would totally understand if people didn't respect my attitude and demeanor at the table for those few months, as I was impolite and complained a lot to players and dealers, an issue I had never had at the tables before. Reflecting back I saw that as a transition period for me. Before 2012 I used poker as an outlet from my family problems. I saw it as not only a game where I could free my mind of some of my family struggles, but also where my actions wouldn't be thrown under a microscope. During that summer, I started throwing my own actions @ the table under the microscope, and verbally and visually expressed my frustrations. I took a break from the game at the end of 2012 to recollect myself and make sure I came back stronger than ever, both as a player and as a genuinely good person at the table.
Fast forward to 2013, even though I feel like I still have some work to do, I am incredibly happy with how my game, attitude, and demeanor have improved at the tables. I know I will never be able to take bad beats as well as some players, but I feel like I've come a long way. Most importantly, I'm genuinely happy to be playing the game and am blessed to have made some of the friendships I've made in the past year. One thing I owe that to is the #TeamHammerDong - #TeamPokerJoker dynamic, which for the most part has been fantastic for growth and entertainment in the Minnesota Poker Community. Being a member of a 'poker team' has allowed me to cultivate meaningful friendships and also enhance my profile on Twitter, which I get a lot of entertainment value out of!
Finally, I hope you, the reader, enjoyed reading this blog. I usually don't step out of my comfort zone to talk about my family life, but felt like it was important to do so at it relates quite heavily to how I got started in poker. I'm thankful that I now get a lot of enjoyment out of the game and am playing it for the right reasons, and hope to continue to do that for a long time! Thank you to everyone that's been a friend to me since I moved out here, I appreciate your friendship more than you probably think! I plan on trying to focus more on poker within my blog and hope you guys continue to read my material!
- Rob
Let me begin with a little background on my family. My family lives in Williamston, Michigan, a small suburb of Lansing (the state capitol). I'm the oldest of three kids, with a 22 year old brother who's currently in graduate school in Berkeley, California, and an 18 year old sister who just started college several weeks ago in St Louis, Missouri. My mother and father hail from San Francisco, California, and London, England, respectively, and neither of them supports that I enjoy playing poker in the slightest. To put it in perspective, my father equates playing poker to abusing drugs or alcohol. The irony behind my father's hate for the game is that he is to thank for some of the reason why my brother and I started playing poker! Both my brother and I were very strong math students growing up, thanks in part to my father who really pushed us to be successful in mathematics. My brother really embraced the challenge, as he's now working on his PHD in Mathematics at the University of California @ Berkeley following a math degree from Massachusetts Institute of Technology. I did as well, but only to an extent, finishing with top marks in AP Calculus my junior year of high school, but decided not to progress farther than that in the world of mathematics, as I didn't see the real world applications of subjects like linear algebra, real analysis, etc.
Anyhow, my brother and I really enjoyed chess growing up, so as we grew older the transition into poker was pretty natural. We both enjoyed the mathematical calculations within the game, as well as the game theory and the psychology. My brother purchased a set of plastic red, white, and blue chips and we started playing heads up poker games sporadically starting in summer 2003, the same summer Chris Moneymaker won the WSOP and poker began to boom. As No Limit Texas Hold'em started to boom (that was the only game I knew how to play @ this point in time) more and more of my friends learned to play, and we started playing home games in the summer of 2004. At that time I was very involved with the tennis team @ my high school, and many of my friends on the team had just picked up poker as well, so naturally this led to an increase in games. We continued to play $5-$10 buy in games all throughout high school, but eventually some of us who had part time jobs wanted to play slightly higher stakes. Fortunately, there was a group of guys a year or two older than us who played a $25-$50 buy in game, so some of us would dabble in that game from time to time, usually losing. At the time we never would have guessed it, but from that 'bigger game' came three professional poker players: Wesley Whybrew, who shipped the Sunday Million on Pokerstars for $200K when he was 19 y/o, Greg Peck, and Andrew 'good2cu' Robl who now plays the 'Big Game' in Macau. You can find the earnings for Greg, Wesley, and Andrew in the respective links.
In March 2007, I made the toughest decision of my life. Considering my home life had been somewhat tumultuous from a pretty young age, I knew I needed to get out of Michigan and away from my family to truly allow myself to flourish in many ways without my parents, specifically my father, constantly scrutinizing everything I did. Thus, I decided to leave Michigan and attend St. Olaf College in Northfield, MN. Although the transition was pretty difficult for me, I still think it's the best decision I've ever made. I vividly remember my father's last words to me the day I stepped onto campus, he told me "Robert, make sure you try harder in college than you did in high school." That being said, I did make an attempt to try harder in school, so poker took a backseat for me throughout my freshman year, although I did find a small home game to play in across town at Carleton College, where I was fortunate enough to meet some truly brilliant people whom I was able to form some awesome friendships with. My first foray into the casino poker scene began following my freshman year of college. I had just gotten out of a long term relationship that wasn't healthy for me and needed an outlet, so I started playing poker at the local charity room in Lansing, MI 10-15 minutes from my house. At that time the most popular game was 1-2 No Limit (!!) with a $100 max buy in. With a bankroll of about $500, I was prepared to crush the game! Not sure how I didn't go broke playing that game the summer of 2008, but I ended up winning about $1500 that summer over a sample size of about 100-120 hours.
I continued to play live games during summer and winter breaks throughout college, but also began playing online in Fall 2008 under the screenname: ericmolina. I was very entertained by his antics in the 2006 WSOP so I decided to use his name for my SN. I received a $40 transfer on Full Tilt Poker and jumped into the microstakes SNG's. After busting my first $40 transfer, I slowly ran my 2nd one up throughout my sophomore and junior year's of college. I was generally pretty busy with studying, friends and sports in college so I never put in more than 10-15 hours a week of volume and didn't have a score bigger than $300.
The summer of 2009 was when poker really 'took off' for me. I was part of a group of friends that enjoyed discussing the game and analyzing hands, which was really helpful for me. Unfortunately, at the same time my life at home was getting even more difficult. Although I wasnt verbal sparring with my father as much as I had in year's past, my grandparents had just moved into assisted living. My grandfather, who was 89 at the time, had been suffering from Alzheimer's disease since 2002, and seeing him suffer the way he did was like constantly getting punched in the stomach. I had engaged in some very tense conversations with my mother and her siblings about putting him in assisted living, and strongly pushed for my family to do it back in California several years before they got around to doing it in Michigan, which I vehemently disagreed with. Once he was placed in assisted living in East Lansing, Michigan, I essentially tried to avoid spending time with him at all costs, as it was incredibly depressing seeing someone who was such a great mentor and influence on me suffer so much. Once again poker was a great outlet from the vicissitudes of my family problems, and in July and August 2009 I put some great results together. By this time I had learned how to play PLO and was doing pretty well in a 1-2 HO game that was running @ the local poker room. I also qualified for the Heartland Poker Tour event at Soaring Eagle Casino and Resort, but couldn't play because my aunt and uncle had came out to visit from California to help take care of my grandfather. Regardless, I sold my seat for $1600 and the $1225 profit was the biggest poker score of my career @ the time. I made $6000 that summer playing games that were $200 buy in or less and charted my entire progress. I think I still have the spreadsheet somewhere if anyone wants to see it just for kicks, but I think I ended up making about $15-16 per hour, which at the time I was very excited about!
Fast forward through my junior and senior years of college to summer 2011. I was a recent graduate of St. Olaf, and had taken a job as a Financial Representative for Thrivent Financial for Lutherans back in Lansing, MI contingent on me passing my Series 7 and 66 licensing exams. At that time I was essentially living with a girl that I'd been seeing for a while and wasn't playing as much poker. At the time I applied for and accepted this position I was very content with my not only my girlfriend, but also with my parents, as my father and I were slowly settling our differences. Unfortunately, a lot of this progress fell apart for me. I wasn't motivated to study for my licensing exams, as I learned pretty quickly after a week or so of studying that I didn't want to spend a year being a financial rep, let alone most of my life... In addition, the relationship I was in wasn't going anywhere, and I missed spending time with my college friends IMMENSELY. Once I failed my licensing exams in September 2011, I started grinding on Lock Poker (whoops?) and simultaneously began applying for jobs in Minnesota. Considering the free time I had on my hands that fall, I felt like my poker game grew by leaps and bounds, as I read and commented in poker strategy forums and watched a lot of poker strategy videos. By December 2011, I had found a temporary job in Minnesota and was all set to move back here. Although I was totally broke at the time, I was elated that I was moving back to Minnesota.
Once I moved out here for good in January 2012, I found myself extremely busy with work, my internship with the Obama Campaign, and spending time with my friends. That left poker, and my girlfriend, on the back burner. Throughout the winter of 2012 I only played cards occasionally, as my bankroll dictated that I save for more important expenditures. I started playing more at Running Aces during Summer 2012 and in all honesty, I was kind of a jerk to players and dealers alike. Although I could tell ppl respected my game, I would totally understand if people didn't respect my attitude and demeanor at the table for those few months, as I was impolite and complained a lot to players and dealers, an issue I had never had at the tables before. Reflecting back I saw that as a transition period for me. Before 2012 I used poker as an outlet from my family problems. I saw it as not only a game where I could free my mind of some of my family struggles, but also where my actions wouldn't be thrown under a microscope. During that summer, I started throwing my own actions @ the table under the microscope, and verbally and visually expressed my frustrations. I took a break from the game at the end of 2012 to recollect myself and make sure I came back stronger than ever, both as a player and as a genuinely good person at the table.
Fast forward to 2013, even though I feel like I still have some work to do, I am incredibly happy with how my game, attitude, and demeanor have improved at the tables. I know I will never be able to take bad beats as well as some players, but I feel like I've come a long way. Most importantly, I'm genuinely happy to be playing the game and am blessed to have made some of the friendships I've made in the past year. One thing I owe that to is the #TeamHammerDong - #TeamPokerJoker dynamic, which for the most part has been fantastic for growth and entertainment in the Minnesota Poker Community. Being a member of a 'poker team' has allowed me to cultivate meaningful friendships and also enhance my profile on Twitter, which I get a lot of entertainment value out of!
Finally, I hope you, the reader, enjoyed reading this blog. I usually don't step out of my comfort zone to talk about my family life, but felt like it was important to do so at it relates quite heavily to how I got started in poker. I'm thankful that I now get a lot of enjoyment out of the game and am playing it for the right reasons, and hope to continue to do that for a long time! Thank you to everyone that's been a friend to me since I moved out here, I appreciate your friendship more than you probably think! I plan on trying to focus more on poker within my blog and hope you guys continue to read my material!
- Rob
Monday, September 9, 2013
It's Wide Open! Evaluating the NL MVP Race
In contrast to the AL MVP race, the NL MVP race is a very close contest with no clear favorite. No NL batter has stood out above his peers, and although one pitcher has, that doesn't necessarily mean his performance is MVP worthy. Nobody stands out particularly in any single category, leaving analysts a really tough decision on who to vote for. Hopefully my analysis can help them out.
One player that must be included in the NL MVP conversation is Andrew McCutchen, CF for the Pittsburgh Pirates. McCutchen leads the NL in WAR and has propelled the Pirates to an 81-61 record, good for first in the WC column and 8 games ahead of the closest competition for a WC birth. Similar to McCutchen, perennial MVP contender Joey Votto of the Cincinnati Reds has his team in the exact same position. Cincinnati is 82-62, tied with Pittsburgh for both WC spots and 1.5 games behind St. Louis in the NL Central. Next, Paul Goldschmidt has put up some absurd #'s for Arizona, and has been an integral piece in the Diamondback's resurgence this season. Finally, we have Clayton Kershaw: the best left handed pitcher in baseball on arguably the best team in baseball. Most year's I wouldn't even consider a player that only plays every five days, but Kershaw is putting up extraordinary numbers.
Just like I did for the AL MVP candidates, I went through the liberties of comparing the advanced metrics of all the NL MVP candidates. I looked at the hitters first, and then at Kershaw. Like I did with AL candidates, I focused on a lot of the sabermetric categories that measure a hitter's complete performance, as opposed to the traditional triple crown categories.
By looking at these metrics, it seems like each candidate has their own respective strengths. McCutchen leads the NL in WAR (Wins Above Replacement) and is a full win higher than both Goldschmidt and Votto. He also has a lower K rate, higher batting average, better fielding, and more stolen bases than the other two. McCutchen has a higher BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) too but he's also faster than Goldschmidt and Votto, so the high BABIP is justified. Votto's main strength is his plate discipline. Hitting 3rd for one of the best offenses in MLB, Votto has an OBP of .430 and a BB% of 17.9%, both of which are the highest in the NL. However, Votto only has 66 RBI this year in 144 games, which takes away some of his value as he's usually pretty strong in the RBI department. Goldschmidt's strength is definitely his power numbers, as he leads the NL with 107 RBI and is 2nd in HR's with 31. He also sports a plus glove in the field and a SLG % of .533, tops among current NL qualifiers.
Here's the chart I attempted to create comparing Kershaw to former SP MVP winners:
As one can see from my awkwardly composed chart, Kershaw has a better ERA and FIP than both Clemens and Verlander did when they won their MVP's in 1986 and 2011, respectively. His HR/9 is significantly lower, sitting at 0.46, as opposed to 0.74 for Clemens and 0.86 for Verlander. It's clear that Kershaw is pitching better than both those former MVP winners did in their MVP seasons, but does that mean Kershaw deserves the MVP award? I don't think it does. Kershaw definitely brings substantial value to the Los Angeles Dodgers, but just as much credit for their resurgence this season must be given to players like Yasiel Puig, Hanley Ramirez, and Greinke, who have all been dynamic during the 2nd half of the season and have contributed similar WAR to Kershaw.
So who is deserving of the NL MVP award? As of now, I would have to go with Andrew McCutchen. The value he brings to the Pittsburgh Pirates is tough to compete with, as he's the cornerstone of a franchise which is probably headed to the playoffs for the first time since 1992. In addition, McCutchen is one of the few five-tool players in baseball, meaning that he's contributing across the board, not just with his bat or glove. Regardless, it will be interesting to see if any of these players steps it up down the stretch, as McCutchen doesn't have the award in his grasp by any means. However, if each of these players continues to perform at the same rate they have throughout 2013, my money is on Andrew McCutchen to win the 2013 NL MVP Award.
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| Goldschmidt's adjustments this year entrenched him in the MVP discussion |
Just like I did for the AL MVP candidates, I went through the liberties of comparing the advanced metrics of all the NL MVP candidates. I looked at the hitters first, and then at Kershaw. Like I did with AL candidates, I focused on a lot of the sabermetric categories that measure a hitter's complete performance, as opposed to the traditional triple crown categories.
By looking at these metrics, it seems like each candidate has their own respective strengths. McCutchen leads the NL in WAR (Wins Above Replacement) and is a full win higher than both Goldschmidt and Votto. He also has a lower K rate, higher batting average, better fielding, and more stolen bases than the other two. McCutchen has a higher BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) too but he's also faster than Goldschmidt and Votto, so the high BABIP is justified. Votto's main strength is his plate discipline. Hitting 3rd for one of the best offenses in MLB, Votto has an OBP of .430 and a BB% of 17.9%, both of which are the highest in the NL. However, Votto only has 66 RBI this year in 144 games, which takes away some of his value as he's usually pretty strong in the RBI department. Goldschmidt's strength is definitely his power numbers, as he leads the NL with 107 RBI and is 2nd in HR's with 31. He also sports a plus glove in the field and a SLG % of .533, tops among current NL qualifiers.
Here's the chart I attempted to create comparing Kershaw to former SP MVP winners:
As one can see from my awkwardly composed chart, Kershaw has a better ERA and FIP than both Clemens and Verlander did when they won their MVP's in 1986 and 2011, respectively. His HR/9 is significantly lower, sitting at 0.46, as opposed to 0.74 for Clemens and 0.86 for Verlander. It's clear that Kershaw is pitching better than both those former MVP winners did in their MVP seasons, but does that mean Kershaw deserves the MVP award? I don't think it does. Kershaw definitely brings substantial value to the Los Angeles Dodgers, but just as much credit for their resurgence this season must be given to players like Yasiel Puig, Hanley Ramirez, and Greinke, who have all been dynamic during the 2nd half of the season and have contributed similar WAR to Kershaw.
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| McCutechen has the Pirates in position to make the playoffs |
Sunday, September 8, 2013
Detroit Lions Recap: Week 1
The NFL is back, and so is my favorite team... the Detroit Lions! After making the playoffs in 2011, the Lions disappointed last year, posting a 4-12 record despite a record-breaking season from WR Calvin "Megatron" Johnson. Fortunately we were able to start the 2013 season the right way with a home win vs the division rival Minnesota Vikings. Although the Lions were favored by four points in this matchup, I didn't have the highest expectations for my Lions in this game, as the Vikings made some excellent draft choices this past April in addition to a few great off-season acquisitions.
Game ball goes to...
Reggie Bush. The Lions premier off season acquisition showed up BIG today, rushing for 90 yards on 21 carries and catching four passes for 101 yards and a touchdown, including a dynamic 77 yard catch and run in the 3rd quarter that took me back to his days at USC. In addition, Bush's consistent running gave the Lions a far more balanced attack then they've had in a long time. Bush and Joquie Bell combined for 27 carries for 115 yards and two touchdowns (both by Bell).
What went well...
In addition to the aforementioned running game of Reggie Bush, Matthew Stafford put together a solid passing effort, going 28-43 for 357 yards, 2 TD, and one INT. Stafford distributed the ball to eight different receivers, seven of them having multiple receptions. The Vikings defense was successful in shutting down Calvin Johnson, but that didn't stop Stafford from having a great day.
What could've gone better...
Besides the first play of the game the Lions did a fantastic job containing Adrian Peterson, however, the defense needs to do a better job preventing big plays. Christian Ponder was able to find Jerome Simpson deep on several passes that could have been defended better. Next, the Lions committed eleven penalties today, although those eleven penalties only resulted in 88 yards of field position. Ndamukong Suh's penalty on DeAndre Levy's interception return for a TD was a momentum killer and cost us seven points, as Stafford threw an interception on the next play.
Next Week...
The Detroit Lions travel to Phoenix to face Carson Palmer, Larry Fitzgerald, and the Arizona Cardinals. The Lions lost 38-10 to the Cardinals last season so they'll be looking to bounce back from that depressing loss from last season!
Game ball goes to...
Reggie Bush. The Lions premier off season acquisition showed up BIG today, rushing for 90 yards on 21 carries and catching four passes for 101 yards and a touchdown, including a dynamic 77 yard catch and run in the 3rd quarter that took me back to his days at USC. In addition, Bush's consistent running gave the Lions a far more balanced attack then they've had in a long time. Bush and Joquie Bell combined for 27 carries for 115 yards and two touchdowns (both by Bell).
In addition to the aforementioned running game of Reggie Bush, Matthew Stafford put together a solid passing effort, going 28-43 for 357 yards, 2 TD, and one INT. Stafford distributed the ball to eight different receivers, seven of them having multiple receptions. The Vikings defense was successful in shutting down Calvin Johnson, but that didn't stop Stafford from having a great day.
What could've gone better...
Besides the first play of the game the Lions did a fantastic job containing Adrian Peterson, however, the defense needs to do a better job preventing big plays. Christian Ponder was able to find Jerome Simpson deep on several passes that could have been defended better. Next, the Lions committed eleven penalties today, although those eleven penalties only resulted in 88 yards of field position. Ndamukong Suh's penalty on DeAndre Levy's interception return for a TD was a momentum killer and cost us seven points, as Stafford threw an interception on the next play.
Next Week...
The Detroit Lions travel to Phoenix to face Carson Palmer, Larry Fitzgerald, and the Arizona Cardinals. The Lions lost 38-10 to the Cardinals last season so they'll be looking to bounce back from that depressing loss from last season!
Tuesday, September 3, 2013
Can Anyone Catch Cabrera? Comparing the AL MVP Candidates
Last year I addressed the AL MVP race with a lengthy diatribe of how Miguel Cabrera was more deserving of the award then Mike Trout, who put together the most impressive rookie season I've seen in my lifetime. Many baseball analysts lobbied for Trout to win, as Trout had a higher WAR and was a true five tool player, which one hardly sees in baseball these days. However, MVP stands for most valuable player, not most impressive player. Thus, Cabrera ended up winning, as he brought value to his team by leading them to the playoffs in addition to putting up gaudy #'s, while Trout, merely put up an extremely impressive stat line.
Despite what baseball pundits have been saying, this year the AL MVP race isn't much different from last year. One can't ignore the noticeable emergence of Chris Davis, but Cabrera and Trout have been the best players in the AL yet again. Many baseball analysts see the AL MVP Race as a runaway victory for Cabrera, but it is fair to view it that way if they're looking at the race from the sabermetric perspective they use last year? Definitely not. I've narrowed down the MVP race to four batters to see if Cabrera should really be running away with the award.
Below is a chart I downloaded from Fangraphs comparing all four candidates: Mike Trout, Miguel Cabrera, Chris Davis, and Manny Machado, in traditional and sabermetric categories to evaluate their respective AL MVP candidacies. The reason I chose these four players is that they had the highest WAR of all AL batters, and all stood out from the competition in some way or form. I did not chose Max Scherzer, despite his 19-1 record, because his 2.90 ERA dictates that he's been very fortunate with his run support to rack up such an impressive record.
Just like last year Trout is leading the AL in WAR (Wins Above Replacement) pacing the league with a 9.6. Cabrera, despite his -15.5 in the fielding category (a horrible score) still has a WAR of 7.6, slightly higher than the 6.9 he achieved in his triple-crown run last season. Besides fielding and stolen bases, Cabrera leads Trout in all the other hitting categories, batting 23 points higher despite a BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) that's 21 points lower (!!). Considering Miggy has 20 more HRs and 48 more RBI than Trout, in addition to a better walk and strikeout rate, you have to give the edge to Cabrera again in 2013. Not to mention the value he brings to the Detroit Tigers, who are the reigning AL champs and in prime position to make the playoffs again this year, unlike the Los Angeles Angels.
In addition to Trout and Cabrera, Manny Machado and Chris Davis have emerged as AL MVP candidates. What sets Machado apart is his fantastic fielding (he's second among AL qualifiers behind Shane Victorino) compared to Davis and Cabrera, who are liabilities in the field. Machado has a low strikeout percentage, but what sets him back compared to the competition is his awful BB%, OBP, and SLG compared to the competition. In several years when Machado's bat catches up to his glove, he could definitely be the AL MVP, however he needs to improve his plate discipline and start turning his line drives into home runs. Just like Machado, Davis needs to improve his plate discipline, hence his 28.9% K%, 7th highest in the AL. His HR/FB% of 31.1% is astronomically
high, and he's very unlikely to repeat that. Davis also only has a .298 batting average and a .381 OBP, which pales in comparison to the OBP and BA of Cabrera and Trout.
So can anyone catch Cabrera in the race for AL MVP? Most likely not. Cabrera leads the AL in batting average, slugging percentage, on base percentage, OPS, and RBI. His stranglehold on the most valuable batting categories, in addition to the value he brings to a playoff contender, will definitely be enough to propel him to a 2nd AL MVP, and maybe even a second consecutive Triple Crown if he can catch Chris Davis in the home run column.
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| Miggy has put himself in position to win a 2nd AL MVP |
Below is a chart I downloaded from Fangraphs comparing all four candidates: Mike Trout, Miguel Cabrera, Chris Davis, and Manny Machado, in traditional and sabermetric categories to evaluate their respective AL MVP candidacies. The reason I chose these four players is that they had the highest WAR of all AL batters, and all stood out from the competition in some way or form. I did not chose Max Scherzer, despite his 19-1 record, because his 2.90 ERA dictates that he's been very fortunate with his run support to rack up such an impressive record.
Just like last year Trout is leading the AL in WAR (Wins Above Replacement) pacing the league with a 9.6. Cabrera, despite his -15.5 in the fielding category (a horrible score) still has a WAR of 7.6, slightly higher than the 6.9 he achieved in his triple-crown run last season. Besides fielding and stolen bases, Cabrera leads Trout in all the other hitting categories, batting 23 points higher despite a BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) that's 21 points lower (!!). Considering Miggy has 20 more HRs and 48 more RBI than Trout, in addition to a better walk and strikeout rate, you have to give the edge to Cabrera again in 2013. Not to mention the value he brings to the Detroit Tigers, who are the reigning AL champs and in prime position to make the playoffs again this year, unlike the Los Angeles Angels.
In addition to Trout and Cabrera, Manny Machado and Chris Davis have emerged as AL MVP candidates. What sets Machado apart is his fantastic fielding (he's second among AL qualifiers behind Shane Victorino) compared to Davis and Cabrera, who are liabilities in the field. Machado has a low strikeout percentage, but what sets him back compared to the competition is his awful BB%, OBP, and SLG compared to the competition. In several years when Machado's bat catches up to his glove, he could definitely be the AL MVP, however he needs to improve his plate discipline and start turning his line drives into home runs. Just like Machado, Davis needs to improve his plate discipline, hence his 28.9% K%, 7th highest in the AL. His HR/FB% of 31.1% is astronomically
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| Machado definitely has the glove of an MVP but the bat lags behind |
So can anyone catch Cabrera in the race for AL MVP? Most likely not. Cabrera leads the AL in batting average, slugging percentage, on base percentage, OPS, and RBI. His stranglehold on the most valuable batting categories, in addition to the value he brings to a playoff contender, will definitely be enough to propel him to a 2nd AL MVP, and maybe even a second consecutive Triple Crown if he can catch Chris Davis in the home run column.
Monday, September 2, 2013
In Light of The NFL Concussion Settlement: Is Playing Football Worth It?
As reported late last week, a $765 million settlement was reached between players who sued the league over concussion related injuries. $675 million of the $765 million will be used to compensate former players and families of deceased players (ESPN). For current football players at all levels of the game, this settlement is arguably encouraging, as the NFL clearly understands the future side effects and trauma players can endure from football related injuries. But for players already suffering from debilitating and traumatic brain injuries, this settlement is too little and too late.
Just last year we saw Junior Seau, one of the best linebackers in the NFL in the 1990's and early 2000's, take his own life shortly after being diagnosed with CTE. CTE, an acronym for chronic traumatic encephalopathy, has been found in the autopsies of several other deceased former-NFL players. Although there is still much more research to be done on CTE, there is definitely some link between head drama, collisions, and CTE. Not only are former NFL players suffering from CTE, but also dementia and Alzheimers. In the recent $765 settlement, the NFL said it would award up to $5 million to former players with Alzheimers, $4 million to those with CTE, and $4 million to those with dementia. On the surface, these settlements may seem generous, but in actuality, they're a slap in the face. These former player's won't recover from these brain diseases, and despite being able to afford the best treatment available, their quality of life will only continue to decline.
As research continues to pour in and former NFL players continue to suffer, current football players at all levels will have to decide: is playing football worth it? Football presents itself with an interesting opportunity cost: discounting future utility for present utility. Is it worth it to play a game that you love to play if it will adversely affect one's mental health and quality of life in the future? In recent year's players like Barry Sanders have walked away from the game at a young age, arguably to avoid taking a beating on the field that would hurt them down the line. I'm interested to see if many current and future players follow in his footsteps and stop the damage before it's too late.
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| Junior Seau for the San Diego Chargers |
As research continues to pour in and former NFL players continue to suffer, current football players at all levels will have to decide: is playing football worth it? Football presents itself with an interesting opportunity cost: discounting future utility for present utility. Is it worth it to play a game that you love to play if it will adversely affect one's mental health and quality of life in the future? In recent year's players like Barry Sanders have walked away from the game at a young age, arguably to avoid taking a beating on the field that would hurt them down the line. I'm interested to see if many current and future players follow in his footsteps and stop the damage before it's too late.
Sunday, January 6, 2013
January 6th NFL Preview
Hi guys, I'm going to try and update more frequently, been really busy with works/friends/etc but there's always more time in the day to pursue your interests! Today's entry is just a quick preview and predictions for the Baltimore Ravens vs Indianapolis Colts and Washington Redskins vs Seattle Seahawks games.
I chose not to write about yesterday's games because the outcomes seemed pretty obvious. The Bengals offense is so one-dimensional, it ebbs and flows through AJ Green, so if Houston shut him down they'd win. Easier said then done, but Houston held Green to 5 catches for 80 yards on 11 targets, and Andy Dalton to 127 yards on 14/30 passing, which is abysmal. The Packers vs Vikings game had some intrigue to it considering the Vikings pulled off an impressive upset last week at Mall Of America field, but winning at Lambeau Field in the playoffs would've been a totally different animal.
Baltimore Ravens vs Indianapolis Colts
I look for this to be a close game between two teams that have potent, but not explosive offenses, and mediocre defenses. The Indianapolis Colts have already exceeded expectations this season, following a 2-14 record in 2011, overcoming the absence of their coach Chuck Pagano who was diagnosed and treated for Leukemia this fall. On the other hand, Baltimore has disappointed recently, losing four of it's past games to end the season at 10-6. Despite their recent struggles, I still like Baltimore in this game. Not only are they playing at home, but they also have a QB in Joe Flacco who's in the postseason for a fifth time in a row. I believe that Flacco's playoff experience vs Andrew Luck's inexperience makes the difference in this game. Also, the Ravens should be able to establish a decent running game is this matchup, whereas the Colts will probably struggle with that.
Make it: Ravens 24 - Colts 13
Washington Redskins vs Seattle Seahawks
This matchup is arguably the most intriguing of the Wild Card Round of the NFL playoffs. Two rookie quarterbacks who exceeded expectations during the regular season are unlikely opponents in the playoffs. Part of me wants to pick Washington, considering they're playing at home and have won their past seven games. Conversely, another part of me wants to pick Seattle, because they've won their past five games, including a 58-0 thrashing of Arizona, a 50-17 beatdown of Buffalo, and then a 42-13 victory of the #2 seeded San Francisco 49ers. Both these team's offenses are clicking at the right time, but I think the Seattle defense will rise to the occasion better than the Washington defense. I know that the Seahawks hold arguably the best home-field advantage in football, and this game is on the road, but I just can't see them dropping a game to Washington after what they've been doing to teams recently. As great as RGIII, Alfred Morris, and the rest of the team have played the past two months to sneak into the playoffs, I think the ride ends hear against a Seahawks team that sports a much better defense than Philadelphia or Dallas, who the Redskins beat four times combined to make the playoffs.
Make it: Seahawks 27 - Redskins 24
I chose not to write about yesterday's games because the outcomes seemed pretty obvious. The Bengals offense is so one-dimensional, it ebbs and flows through AJ Green, so if Houston shut him down they'd win. Easier said then done, but Houston held Green to 5 catches for 80 yards on 11 targets, and Andy Dalton to 127 yards on 14/30 passing, which is abysmal. The Packers vs Vikings game had some intrigue to it considering the Vikings pulled off an impressive upset last week at Mall Of America field, but winning at Lambeau Field in the playoffs would've been a totally different animal.
Baltimore Ravens vs Indianapolis Colts
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| Andrew Luck's had a great rookie year, but can he win a road playoff game? |
Make it: Ravens 24 - Colts 13
Washington Redskins vs Seattle Seahawks
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| Griffin has drawn most the press, but Wilson has had a fantastic year too |
Make it: Seahawks 27 - Redskins 24
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