Can the Lions Rebound?

As a Detroit sports fan, I've been spoiled over the past decade.  The Detroit Pistons won an NBA title in 2004, the Red Wings won Stanley Cups in 2002 and 2008, the Tigers are in the World Series for the 2nd time in the past seven years, and the Lions are finally relevant again.  In spite of the Pistons current struggles, it's been a fantastic time to be a fan of Motor City teams... until now. Let's face it. The Detroit Lions won't be making the playoffs again this year and here's three reasons why:

(1) A tougher schedule

Considering the Lions finished 2nd in their division last year, they play the 2nd place finishers in the other NFC divisions. Those teams are as follows: Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Arizona.  The Lions already escaped with a victory against the Eagles, and should have some trouble with the Cardinals despite their poor quarterback play.  The Falcons? Currently the only undefeated team in the NFL and a passing attack that should obliterate the Lions secondary.  Not looking good so far.

Stafford hasn't been as sharp in 2012

Divisional opponents have also improved this year.  The Packers are still loaded on offense and should make the playoffs despite a sub par defense. The Bears already have a victory against the Lions and have looked sharp on offense and defense (not so much on offense against us Monday night).  Most importantly, the Vikings are respectable again this year, and are off to a fast start. It will be tough to catch all three of these teams from the bottom of the NFC North.

(2) Matt Stafford

Coming off a fantastic year last season, expectations were high for the Lions 4th year QB.  However, 2011 was the first full season Stafford had put together.  Defenses hadn't had a chance to put forth schemes designated to stop him and the Lions passing game.  This year, Stafford is facing more pressure.  Although he isn't taking more sacks or throwing more interceptions than last season, Stafford's YPA (Yards Per Attempt) is down to 6.64 to 7.60 from last season, while his completion percentage is slightly lower, falling from 63% in 2011 to 62% in 2012.  Those declines may be minimal statistically, but the offense has clearly had more issues moving the ball and scoring in 2012 than it had in 2011.

(3) Defense

Statistically, defense hasn't changed much for the Lions in 2012 than in 2011.  This is concerning though, as the Lions still have to play Green Bay twice and the Houston Texans once, two very high scoring teams.  Below I've assembled a chart to document the Lions defensive struggles.  2012 statistics have been multiplied to average out to the stats of a 16-game season.

YEAR	Sacks	TO	Yards Allowed	Points Allowed
2011	41	34	367.6	387
2012	45	16	319.3	400

Suh and the rest of the Lions D will need to force more turnovers

Clearly the difference between this year and last is the lack of turnovers forced.  The Lions have essentially gone from forcing two turnovers per game to one.  Part of the problem is a struggling secondary.  Opposing teams know that the strength of the Lions defense is their front seven, which gives them an advantage with their play calling.  The Lions must overcompensate on their secondary coverage, which allows opposing teams to run the ball more effectively, as the Lions are afraid of giving up big plays.  This overcompensation is evident in the current defensive statistics, as the Lions are currently allowing only 210 passing YPG, good for 6th among NFL defenses, yet are allowing 109 rushing YPG, good for 16th among NFL defenses despite their strong defensive front.

Can the Lions overcome these issues on both sides of the ball to make the playoffs?  I highly doubt it. The NFC conference as a whole is much stronger than the AFC, and the Lions division is extremely competitive.  Even if we start forcing more turnovers on defense and the offense starts clicking, it will be tough to overcome our current deficit in the NFC North. Unfortunately for Lions fans like myself, the playoffs look like an extreme long shot in 2012.

Cabrera vs Trout: The AL MVP Race

I've been biting my tongue on this one for a while... but now it is finally time to let it all out...

Miguel Cabrera should, and deserves to be, the 2012 AL MVP over Mike Trout.

A true revelation this season, Mike Trout rocked the baseball world in 2012

Let me start with this.  There are many ways to interpret the word 'valuable.'  Many ESPN or Fangraphs analysts would associate valuable with WAR - Wins Above Replacement.  WAR determines how much additional value a player adds to his team over a fill in at that position.  That value is measured in wins.  Currently Mike Trout has the highest WAR of any player in the AL at 10.3.  However, does that truly mean the Angels would have won 10 less games without him? Last year's CF, Peter Bourjos, had a WAR of 4.5.  Thus, isn't Mike Trouts true WAR only valued at 5.8, as Bourjos would've likely been the alternative in CF? I'll designate this value tWAR for true wins above replacement.

Considering we've subjected Trout to such scrutiny, let's look at the tWAR of Miguel Cabrera.  Most of the sabermetrics crowd laud Trout for his defense and base running, while criticizing Cabrera for his struggles in those same facets of the game.  However, Cabrera still managed a WAR of 7.3, T-2nd in the AL, despite negative returns in the base running and fielding categories.  In terms of tWAR, Cabrera's can be calculated as so:

(2012 Cabrera) - (2011 Betemit) - (2011 Inge) - (2011 Cabrera - 2012 Fielder)

Since Brandon Inge played 3B for the first half of the 2011 season we must include his WAR.  Also, considering Cabrera moved from 1st to 3rd this year, we must calculate the value gained/lost with the current 1st baseman, Prince Fielder.

(7.3) - (0.4) - (-0.4 ) - (7.2 - 4.9) = 5.0 tWAR

Thus Cabrera's tWAR = 5.0.  This number is less than Trout's tWAR of 5.8, but significantly closer than his WAR of 7.3 compared to the 10.3 of Trout.

Taking a look at more traditional metrics, I've assembled a chart to compare the MVP candidates:

Player	BA	HR	RBI	Runs	SB	OPS	BA RISP	OBP
Mike Trout	.324	30	83	129	49	.948	.327	.397
Miguel Cabrera	.331	44	139	109	4	1.002	.356	.394

Cabrera clearly has the edge in the 'Triple Crown' categories of batting average, home runs, and runs batted in.  Before the sabermetric area, these numbers alone would put Cabrera on the podium.  However, considering the impressive season Trout is having, he needs a bit more than that.  Let's analyze some of the other categories to show why Cabrera still deserves to win:

(1) The true value of runs scored.

Miggy for MVP!

Trout has scored 20 more runs than Cabrera this year, impressive considering he's played 20 less games.  However, runs scored reflects a lot on the hitters behind you in the lineup.  It's not too difficult to cross the plate frequently with Albert Pujols and Torii Hunter batting .286 and .314 behind you, respectively.  After Prince Fielder, the Tigers have relatively poor hitting in the 5-9 spots, as Alex Avila, Jhonny Peralta, and Delmon Young have all struggled this year.  This explains why Cabrera's run scored this year is slightly lower than in 2011 despite a higher batting average and more home runs.

(2) OPS
Cabrera leads the American League in On Base + Slugging Percentage among qualified players (Big Papi doesn't have enough plate appearances despite a higher OBP).  OPS essentially measures how good a hitter is over the course of the season, as it combines their on base percentage with their power.  Trout does has the second highest qualifying OPS behind Cabrera, so credit must be given to him as hitter.

(3) BA w/RISP
I think this is the most telling metric when defining the most 'valuable' player.  I see valuable as who creates the most runs for their team.  Cabrera has done that not only with 139 RBI, but also with a .356 batting average with runners in scoring position.  Trout only has a .327 BA w/RISP.  Trout's number is still solid, as it's higher than his nominal batting average of .324, but Cabrera's truly stands out.  If there's a clutch factor in baseball, Cabrera has it, as he's came through when his team needs it most. 

I understand that some might think hitting 25 points about your normal batting average with RISP could be attributed to luck, but something has to be said about the clutch factor of the best hitter in the American League.  Miguel Cabrera time and time again has gotten the 'big hit' for the Tigers this year in the 8th, 9th, and extra innings.  Plays like that stand out, and a player that can perform like that in crunch time is a truly exceptional one. 

So despite the emergence of a fantastic rookie and superstar in Mike Trout, the MVP award belongs to Miguel Cabrera this year.  He's not only been the best hitter throughout the season, but the best with runners on base, and the best when it matters most: when the game is on the line.

Reflection on #NBARank 161-200

Hey guys it's been a little while, been pretty busy trying to find a new job. I'm officially over the finance industry and seeking employment elsewhere.  Considering how disappointing Michigan and the Lions have been so far, I'm already getting excited for basketball season! Each September ESPN puts together a ranking system for the top 400 players entering the season.  I generally agree with most players’ rankings within 5-10 places for the top 100, but when it gets to the lower ranked players, not as much.  This is understandable, as even the analysts pay less attention to the role and bench players on most squads, and the less you see a player play, the harder it is to determine their value.  Regardless, here are four players I think are either under or overvalued from #161-200 in #NBARank.

#	Player	Team	PPG	APG	RPG	PER
165	Nick Young	Philadelphia 76ers	14.2	0.9	2.1	12.93
177	Brandon Knight	Detroit Pistons	12.8	3.8	3.2	11.79
185	Vince Carter	Dallas Mavericks	10.1	2.3	3.4	13.61
195	Marreese Speights	Memphis Grizzlies	8.8	0.8	6.2	14.12

Overrated: 

Can his swagger translate into better production?

(165) Nick Young.  Young plays a very dispensable role for the 76ers, taking the place of Lou Williams at the SG position, as Williams departed for the Atlanta Hawks.  The fact that the 76ers acquired Young, who posted a 12.93 PER (Player Efficiency Rating) last season, and let Williams go, who posted a 20.22 PER that same year, doesn't make sense to me.  Clearly Williams was an efficient scorer, while Young doesn't contribute in any other facet of the game.  Nick Young does have the ability to put up big shooting numbers, but his inefficiency makes him a liability on the court.  For this reason, Young is definitely overrated in #NBARank2012, by at least 20-30 spots.  I would much rather have a lower ranked player, like Gerald Henderson or Rip Hamilton as my two-guard than Nick Young.

Does Carter have anything left in the tank?

(185) Vince Carter.  Sorry folks, Vin-sanity is past his prime.  Watching Carter on the court last season wasn't just disappointing, it was depressing.  He shot .411 from the field, and only managed to shoot an average of two free throws per game.  Although his PER was decent for a role player, Carter's role this year seems destined to decrease with the arrival of OJ Mayo.  The Mavericks fell off last year, and Vince Carter should continue to do the same this year.  At 35 years old I don't think he has enough in the tank to justify his ranking of #185, and he won't be used enough to give himself a chance to exceed it. 

Underrated: 

DEEETROITT BASKETBALL

(177) Brandon Knight.  Although he wasn't the most efficient PG as a rookie last year, Knight has the ability to grow by leaps and bounds this year.  The Detroit Pistons drafted Knight in the 1st round out of Kentucky in 2011, and the rookie immediately made an impact.  Although his PER was only 11.79, and his Assist/Turnover Ratio was approx 1.5, Knight looked explosive and showed a lot of potential.  He should gel more with third year PF/C Greg Monroe this year, as well as Jonas Jerebko and combo guard Rodney Stuckey.  As a Pistons fan I'm naturally excited about Brandon Knight, and would be quite surprised if he didn't exceed his #NBARank for this season. 

Keep on balling, Marreese!

(195) Marreese Speights.  Speights quietly put together a solid 2011-2012 campaign, scoring 8.8 ppg and grabbing 6.2 rpg in only 22 minutes per contest.  The reasoning behind some of his minutes were the injuries to Zach Randolph and Darrell Arthur, but regardless, Speights established himself as a legitimate big man and was a big reason why the Grizzlies were able to overcome said injuries to make the playoffs.  Only 25 y/o , Speights still has time to improve on a young Grizzlies team.  Talented big men are hard to come by in the NBA, thus a player like Speights is a much less common commodity than a two guard like Nick Young, Jimmer Fredette, or Dorell Wright, who contribute mostly in the points department.  Hopefully Speights can match his performance from last year and outpace his current #NBARank