My Poker Story: An Outlet to Deal With Stress Transformed in to a Passion

In light of the recent blog posts by my friends Brooksie and Rooster, I figured I would share my story starting from when I began playing poker to where I am today, and where I would like to see myself in the poker community in the future.  Big props to them for keeping it real, I plan on doing the same. Before you start reading this I would like to mention that it wasn't easy for me to write this, but felt like every detail I included was essential in telling my poker story, so bear with me!

Let me begin with a little background on my family.  My family lives in Williamston, Michigan, a small suburb of Lansing (the state capitol). I'm the oldest of three kids, with a 22 year old brother who's currently in graduate school in Berkeley, California, and an 18 year old sister who just started college several weeks ago in St Louis, Missouri. My mother and father hail from San Francisco, California, and London, England, respectively, and neither of them supports that I enjoy playing poker in the slightest.  To put it in perspective, my father equates playing poker to abusing drugs or alcohol.  The irony behind my father's hate for the game is that he is to thank for some of the reason why my brother and I started playing poker! Both my brother and I were very strong math students growing up, thanks in part to my father who really pushed us to be successful in mathematics.  My brother really embraced the challenge, as he's now working on his PHD in Mathematics at the University of California @ Berkeley following a math degree from Massachusetts Institute of Technology.  I did as well, but only to an extent, finishing with top marks in AP Calculus my junior year of high school, but decided not to progress farther than that in the world of mathematics, as I didn't see the real world applications of subjects like linear algebra, real analysis, etc.

Anyhow, my brother and I really enjoyed chess growing up, so as we grew older the transition into poker was pretty natural. We both enjoyed the mathematical calculations within the game, as well as the game theory and the psychology.  My brother purchased a set of plastic red, white, and blue chips and we started playing heads up poker games sporadically starting in summer 2003, the same summer Chris Moneymaker won the WSOP and poker began to boom.  As No Limit Texas Hold'em started to boom (that was the only game I knew how to play @ this point in time) more and more of my friends learned to play, and we started playing home games in the summer of 2004.  At that time I was very involved with the tennis team @ my high school, and many of my friends on the team had just picked up poker as well, so naturally this led to an increase in games.  We continued to play $5-$10 buy in games all throughout high school, but eventually some of us who had part time jobs wanted to play slightly higher stakes.  Fortunately, there was a group of guys a year or two older than us who played a $25-$50 buy in game, so some of us would dabble in that game from time to time, usually losing.  At the time we never would have guessed it, but from that 'bigger game' came three professional poker players: Wesley Whybrew, who shipped the Sunday Million on Pokerstars for $200K when he was 19 y/o, Greg Peck, and Andrew 'good2cu' Robl who now plays the 'Big Game' in Macau.  You can find the earnings for Greg, Wesley, and Andrew in the respective links. 

In March 2007, I made the toughest decision of my life.  Considering my home life had been somewhat tumultuous from a pretty young age, I knew I needed to get out of Michigan and away from my family to truly allow myself to flourish in many ways without my parents, specifically my father, constantly scrutinizing everything I did.  Thus, I decided to leave Michigan and attend St. Olaf College in Northfield, MN.  Although the transition was pretty difficult for me, I still think it's the best decision I've ever made. I vividly remember my father's last words to me the day I stepped onto campus, he told me "Robert, make sure you try harder in college than you did in high school." That being said, I did make an attempt to try harder in school, so poker took a backseat for me throughout my freshman year, although I did find a small home game to play in across town at Carleton College, where I was fortunate enough to meet some truly brilliant people whom I was able to form some awesome friendships with.  My first foray into the casino poker scene began following my freshman year of college.  I had just gotten out of a long term relationship that wasn't healthy for me and needed an outlet, so I started playing poker at the local charity room in Lansing, MI 10-15 minutes from my house.  At that time the most popular game was 1-2 No Limit (!!) with a $100 max buy in. With a bankroll of about $500, I was prepared to crush the game! Not sure how I didn't go broke playing that game the summer of 2008, but I ended up winning about $1500 that summer over a sample size of about 100-120 hours.

I continued to play live games during summer and winter breaks throughout college, but also began playing online in Fall 2008 under the screenname: ericmolina.  I was very entertained by his antics in the 2006 WSOP so I decided to use his name for my SN. I received a $40 transfer on Full Tilt Poker and jumped into the microstakes SNG's. After busting my first $40 transfer, I slowly ran my 2nd one up throughout my sophomore and junior year's of college.  I was generally pretty busy with studying, friends and sports in college so I never put in more than 10-15 hours a week of volume and didn't have a score bigger than $300.

The summer of 2009 was when poker really 'took off' for me.  I was part of a group of friends that enjoyed discussing the game and analyzing hands, which was really helpful for me.  Unfortunately, at the same time my life at home was getting even more difficult. Although I wasnt verbal sparring with my father as much as I had in year's past, my grandparents had just moved into assisted living. My grandfather, who was 89 at the time, had been suffering from Alzheimer's disease since 2002, and seeing him suffer the way he did was like constantly getting punched in the stomach.  I had engaged in some very tense conversations with my mother and her siblings about putting him in assisted living, and strongly pushed for my family to do it back in California several years before they got around to doing it in Michigan, which I vehemently disagreed with.  Once he was placed in assisted living in East Lansing, Michigan, I essentially tried to avoid spending time with him at all costs, as it was incredibly depressing seeing someone who was such a great mentor and influence on me suffer so much.  Once again poker was a great outlet from the vicissitudes of my family problems, and in July and August 2009 I put some great results together.  By this time I had learned how to play PLO and was doing pretty well in a 1-2  HO game that was running @ the local poker room.  I also qualified for the Heartland Poker Tour event at Soaring Eagle Casino and Resort, but couldn't play because my aunt and uncle had came out to visit from California to help take care of my grandfather.  Regardless, I sold my seat for $1600 and the $1225 profit was the biggest poker score of my career @ the time. I made $6000 that summer playing games that were $200 buy in or less and charted my entire progress. I think I still have the spreadsheet somewhere if anyone wants to see it just for kicks, but I think I ended up making about $15-16 per hour, which at the time I was very excited about!

Fast forward through my junior and senior years of college to summer 2011. I was a recent graduate of St. Olaf, and had taken a job as a Financial Representative for Thrivent Financial for Lutherans back in Lansing, MI contingent on me passing my Series 7 and 66 licensing exams. At that time I was essentially living with a girl that I'd been seeing for a while and wasn't playing as much poker.  At the time I applied for and accepted this position I was very content with my not only my girlfriend, but also with my parents, as my father and I were slowly settling our differences.  Unfortunately, a lot of this progress fell apart for me.  I wasn't motivated to study for my licensing exams, as I learned pretty quickly after a week or so of studying that I didn't want to spend a year being a financial rep, let alone most of my life...  In addition, the relationship I was in wasn't going anywhere, and I missed spending time with my college friends IMMENSELY.  Once I failed my licensing exams in September 2011, I started grinding on Lock Poker (whoops?) and simultaneously began applying for jobs in Minnesota.  Considering the free time I had on my hands that fall, I felt like my poker game grew by leaps and bounds, as I read and commented in poker strategy forums and watched a lot of poker strategy videos.  By December 2011, I had found a temporary job in Minnesota and was all set to move back here.  Although I was totally broke at the time, I was elated that I was moving back to Minnesota.

Once I moved out here for good in January 2012, I found myself extremely busy with work, my internship with the Obama Campaign, and spending time with my friends. That left poker, and my girlfriend, on the back burner. Throughout the winter of 2012 I only played cards occasionally, as my bankroll dictated that I save for more important expenditures. I started playing more at Running Aces during Summer 2012 and in all honesty, I was kind of a jerk to players and dealers alike.  Although I could tell ppl respected my game, I would totally understand if people didn't respect my attitude and demeanor at the table for those few months, as I was impolite and complained a lot to players and dealers, an issue I had never had at the tables before.  Reflecting back I saw that as a transition period for me.  Before 2012 I used poker as an outlet from my family problems. I saw it as not only a game where I could free my mind of some of my family struggles, but also where my actions wouldn't be thrown under a microscope.  During that summer, I started throwing my own actions @ the table under the microscope, and verbally and visually expressed my frustrations.  I took a break from the game at the end of 2012 to recollect myself and make sure I came back stronger than ever, both as a player and as a genuinely good person at the table.

Fast forward to 2013, even though I feel like I still have some work to do, I am incredibly happy with how my game, attitude, and demeanor have improved at the tables.  I know I will never be able to take bad beats as well as some players, but I feel like I've come a long way.  Most importantly, I'm genuinely happy to be playing the game and am blessed to have made some of the friendships I've made in the past year.  One thing I owe that to is the #TeamHammerDong - #TeamPokerJoker dynamic, which for the most part has been fantastic for growth and entertainment in the Minnesota Poker Community. Being a member of a 'poker team' has allowed me to cultivate meaningful friendships and also enhance my profile on Twitter, which I get a lot of entertainment value out of!

 Finally, I hope you, the reader, enjoyed reading this blog.  I usually don't step out of my comfort zone to talk about my family life, but felt like it was important to do so at it relates quite heavily to how I got started in poker.  I'm thankful that I now get a lot of enjoyment out of the game and am playing it for the right reasons, and hope to continue to do that for a long time! Thank you to everyone that's been a friend to me since I moved out here, I appreciate your friendship more than you probably think! I plan on trying to focus more on poker within my blog and hope you guys continue to read my material!

- Rob 

It's Wide Open! Evaluating the NL MVP Race

In contrast to the AL MVP race, the NL MVP race is a very close contest with no clear favorite.  No NL batter has stood out above his peers, and although one pitcher has, that doesn't necessarily mean his performance is MVP worthy.  Nobody stands out particularly in any single category, leaving analysts a really tough decision on who to vote for.  Hopefully my analysis can help them out.

Goldschmidt's adjustments this year entrenched him in the MVP discussion

One player that must be included in the NL MVP conversation is Andrew McCutchen, CF for the Pittsburgh Pirates.  McCutchen leads the NL in WAR and has propelled the Pirates to an 81-61 record, good for first in the WC column and 8 games ahead of the closest competition for a WC birth. Similar to McCutchen, perennial MVP contender Joey Votto of the Cincinnati Reds has his team in the exact same position. Cincinnati is 82-62, tied with Pittsburgh for both WC spots and 1.5 games behind St. Louis in the NL Central.  Next, Paul Goldschmidt has put up some absurd #'s for Arizona, and has been an integral piece in the Diamondback's resurgence this season.  Finally, we have Clayton Kershaw: the best left handed pitcher in baseball on arguably the best team in baseball. Most year's I wouldn't even consider a player that only plays every five days, but Kershaw is putting up extraordinary numbers.

Just like I did for the AL MVP candidates, I went through the liberties of comparing the advanced metrics of all the NL MVP candidates.  I looked at the hitters first, and then at Kershaw. Like I did with AL candidates, I focused on a lot of the sabermetric categories that measure a hitter's complete performance, as opposed to the traditional triple crown categories.

By looking at these metrics, it seems like each candidate has their own respective strengths.  McCutchen leads the NL in WAR (Wins Above Replacement) and is a full win higher than both Goldschmidt and Votto.  He also has a lower K rate, higher batting average, better fielding, and more stolen bases than the other two.  McCutchen has a higher BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) too but he's also faster than Goldschmidt and Votto, so the high BABIP is justified.  Votto's main strength is his plate discipline. Hitting 3rd for one of the best offenses in MLB, Votto has an OBP of .430 and a BB% of 17.9%, both of which are the highest in the NL.  However, Votto only has 66 RBI this year in 144 games, which takes away some of his value as he's usually pretty strong in the RBI department.  Goldschmidt's strength is definitely his power numbers, as he leads the NL with 107 RBI and is 2nd in HR's with 31. He also sports a plus glove in the field and a SLG % of .533, tops among current NL qualifiers. 

Here's the chart I attempted to create comparing Kershaw to former SP MVP winners:

As one can see from my awkwardly composed chart, Kershaw has a better ERA and FIP than both Clemens and Verlander did when they won their MVP's in 1986 and 2011, respectively.  His HR/9 is significantly lower, sitting at 0.46, as opposed to 0.74 for Clemens and 0.86 for Verlander.  It's clear that Kershaw is pitching better than both those former MVP winners did in their MVP seasons, but does that mean Kershaw deserves the MVP award? I don't think it does.  Kershaw definitely brings substantial value to the Los Angeles Dodgers, but just as much credit for their resurgence this season must be given to players like Yasiel Puig, Hanley Ramirez, and Greinke, who have all been dynamic during the 2nd half of the season and have contributed similar WAR to Kershaw. 

McCutechen has the Pirates in position to make the playoffs

So who is deserving of the NL MVP award? As of now, I would have to go with Andrew McCutchen.  The value he brings to the Pittsburgh Pirates is tough to compete with, as he's the cornerstone of a franchise which is probably headed to the playoffs for the first time since 1992.  In addition, McCutchen is one of the few five-tool players in baseball, meaning that he's contributing across the board, not just with his bat or glove.   Regardless, it will be interesting to see if any of these players steps it up down the stretch, as McCutchen doesn't have the award in his grasp by any means.  However, if each of these players continues to perform at the same rate they have throughout 2013, my money is on Andrew McCutchen to win the 2013 NL MVP Award.

Detroit Lions Recap: Week 1

The NFL is back, and so is my favorite team... the Detroit Lions! After making the playoffs in 2011, the Lions disappointed last year, posting a 4-12 record despite a record-breaking season from WR Calvin "Megatron" Johnson.  Fortunately we were able to start the 2013 season the right way with a home win vs the division rival Minnesota Vikings.  Although the Lions were favored by four points in this matchup, I didn't have the highest expectations for my Lions in this game, as the Vikings made some excellent draft choices this past April in addition to a few great off-season acquisitions.

Game ball goes to... 
Reggie Bush. The Lions premier off season acquisition showed up BIG today, rushing for 90 yards on 21 carries and catching four passes for 101 yards and a touchdown, including a dynamic 77 yard catch and run in the 3rd quarter that took me back to his days at USC.  In addition, Bush's consistent running gave the Lions a far more balanced attack then they've had in a long time.  Bush and Joquie Bell combined for 27 carries for 115 yards and two touchdowns (both by Bell).

What went well...
In addition to the aforementioned running game of Reggie Bush, Matthew Stafford put together a solid passing effort, going 28-43 for 357 yards, 2 TD, and one INT.  Stafford distributed the ball to eight different receivers, seven of them having multiple receptions.  The Vikings defense was successful in shutting down Calvin Johnson, but that didn't stop Stafford from having a great day. 

What could've gone better...
Besides the first play of the game the Lions did a fantastic job containing Adrian Peterson, however, the defense needs to do a better job preventing big plays.  Christian Ponder was able to find Jerome Simpson deep on several passes that could have been defended better.   Next, the Lions committed eleven penalties today,  although those eleven penalties only resulted in 88 yards of field position. Ndamukong Suh's penalty on DeAndre Levy's interception return for a TD was a momentum killer and cost us seven points, as Stafford threw an interception on the next play.

Next Week...
The Detroit Lions travel to Phoenix to face Carson Palmer, Larry Fitzgerald, and the Arizona Cardinals.  The Lions lost 38-10 to the Cardinals last season so they'll be looking to bounce back from that depressing loss from last season!

Can Anyone Catch Cabrera? Comparing the AL MVP Candidates

Last year I addressed the AL MVP race with a lengthy diatribe of how Miguel Cabrera was more deserving of the award then Mike Trout, who put together the most impressive rookie season I've seen in my lifetime.  Many baseball analysts lobbied for Trout to win, as Trout had a higher WAR and was a true five tool player, which one hardly sees in baseball these days.  However, MVP stands for most valuable player, not most impressive player.  Thus, Cabrera ended up winning, as he brought value to his team by leading them to the playoffs in addition to putting up gaudy #'s, while Trout, merely put up an extremely impressive stat line. 

Miggy has put himself in position to win a 2nd AL MVP

Despite what baseball pundits have been saying, this year the AL MVP race isn't much different from last year.  One can't ignore the noticeable emergence of Chris Davis, but Cabrera and Trout have been the best players in the AL yet again.  Many baseball analysts see the AL MVP Race as a runaway victory for Cabrera, but it is fair to view it that way if they're looking at the race from the sabermetric perspective they use last year? Definitely not. I've narrowed down the MVP race to four batters to see if Cabrera should really be running away with the award.

Below is a chart I downloaded from Fangraphs comparing all four candidates: Mike Trout, Miguel Cabrera, Chris Davis, and Manny Machado, in traditional and sabermetric categories to evaluate their respective AL MVP candidacies.  The reason I chose these four players is that they had the highest WAR of all AL batters, and all stood out from the competition in some way or form.  I did not chose Max Scherzer, despite his 19-1 record, because his 2.90 ERA dictates that he's been very fortunate with his run support to rack up such an impressive record.

Just like last year Trout is leading the AL in WAR (Wins Above Replacement) pacing the league with a 9.6. Cabrera, despite his -15.5 in the fielding category (a horrible score) still has a WAR of 7.6, slightly higher than the 6.9 he achieved in his triple-crown run last season.  Besides fielding and stolen bases, Cabrera leads Trout in all the other hitting categories, batting 23 points higher despite a BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) that's 21 points lower (!!). Considering Miggy has 20 more HRs and 48 more RBI than Trout, in addition to a better walk and strikeout rate, you have to give the edge to Cabrera again in 2013.  Not to mention the value he brings to the Detroit Tigers, who are the reigning AL champs and in prime position to make the playoffs again this year, unlike the Los Angeles Angels.

In addition to Trout and Cabrera, Manny Machado and Chris Davis have emerged as AL MVP candidates.  What sets Machado apart is his fantastic fielding (he's second among AL qualifiers behind Shane Victorino) compared to Davis and Cabrera, who are liabilities in the field. Machado has a low strikeout percentage, but what sets him back compared to the competition is his awful BB%, OBP, and SLG compared to the competition.  In several years when Machado's bat catches up to his glove, he could definitely be the AL MVP, however he needs to improve his plate discipline and start turning his line drives into home runs.  Just like Machado, Davis needs to improve his plate discipline, hence his 28.9% K%, 7th highest in the AL. His HR/FB% of 31.1% is astronomically

Machado definitely has the glove of an MVP but the bat lags behind

high, and he's very unlikely to repeat that.  Davis also only has a .298 batting average and a .381 OBP, which pales in comparison to the OBP and BA of Cabrera and Trout. 

So can anyone catch Cabrera in the race for AL MVP? Most likely not. Cabrera leads the AL in batting average, slugging percentage, on base percentage, OPS, and RBI. His stranglehold on the most valuable batting categories, in addition to the value he brings to a playoff contender, will definitely be enough to propel him to a 2nd AL MVP, and maybe even a second consecutive Triple Crown if he can catch Chris Davis in the home run column.

In Light of The NFL Concussion Settlement: Is Playing Football Worth It?

As reported late last week, a $765 million settlement was reached between players who sued the league over concussion related injuries.  $675 million of the $765 million will be used to compensate former players and families of deceased players (ESPN).  For current football players at all levels of the game, this settlement is arguably encouraging, as the NFL clearly understands the future side effects and trauma players can endure from football related injuries.  But for players already suffering from debilitating and traumatic brain injuries, this settlement is too little and too late. 

Junior Seau for the San Diego Chargers

Just last year we saw Junior Seau, one of the best linebackers in the NFL in the 1990's and early 2000's, take his own life shortly after being diagnosed with CTE. CTE, an acronym for chronic traumatic encephalopathy, has been found in the autopsies of several other deceased former-NFL players.  Although there is still much more research to be done on CTE, there is definitely some link between head drama, collisions, and CTE.  Not only are former NFL players suffering from CTE, but also dementia and Alzheimers.  In the recent $765 settlement, the NFL said it would award up to $5 million to former players with Alzheimers, $4 million to those with CTE, and $4 million to those with dementia. On the surface, these settlements may seem generous, but in actuality, they're a slap in the face.  These former player's won't recover from these brain diseases, and despite being able to afford the best treatment available, their quality of life will only continue to decline. 

As research continues to pour in and former NFL players continue to suffer, current football players at all levels will have to decide: is playing football worth it?  Football presents itself with an interesting opportunity cost: discounting future utility for present utility.  Is it worth it to play a game that you love to play if it will adversely affect one's mental health and quality of life in the future? In recent year's players like Barry Sanders have walked away from the game at a young age, arguably to avoid taking a beating on the field that would hurt them down the line.  I'm interested to see if many current and future players follow in his footsteps and stop the damage before it's too late.