Upswing and Tigers

Hi guys, sorry it's been a little while.  Been really busy this week with my job, internship, and poker.  My internship ends pretty soon, and I'll be putting my two weeks in at my current job once I hear back from one of the two groups I applied with.  Both potential offers in Lansing and Las Vegas are definitely more interesting than my current position, so I would temporarily be moving away from Minnesota to assume either of those.

Anyways, I've been on the 2nd biggest poker upswing of my life over the past week.  As of last night I'm up $2350 since Saturday, April 21st.  I credit this upswing to a good run of cards, but more importantly increase focus.  I've stopped listening to music while I play in order to try and pick up as many tells and reads on my opponents as possible.  I also have a better feel for the games I've generally been playing: $300+30 Survivor Tournaments, which are played for two hours, and the 6/12 FLO/8 with a 10/20 kill.  In regards to the Omaha game, a general leak among most of the players is they try and play too many hands to make low hands, which are only worth half the pot.  Usually it's quite difficult to scoop a pot with the nut low hand, unless you make a straight or a big flush in addition to the low.  Thus, double suited aces with a deuce or trey included are very valuable hands and great prospects to scoop a pot.  Other hands I consider very strong include AKQ2, preferably with at least one suit, AK23, A234, AKQJ, A2J10, etc.  Sets can be very valuable in this game too, as if you make a boat you will probably be joined in the betting with a weaker player who has made an inferior full house with a low hand. 

Thanks for the memories, Brandon

Next, the Detroit Tigers have looked pretty terrible lately.  One of my worst fears coming into the season was that our pitching would regress, except for Verlander, and opposing pitchers would pitch around Cabrera and Fielder, and be successful against the rest of the lineup.  These fears have been realized over the past week, as the Tigers got swept by the Seattle Mariners at home (wtf?) by a 21-9 aggregate.  In each of these games we weren't successful against a mediocre Mariners bullpen, so it's disappointing we couldn't pick up at least one of these games.  Hopefully Doug Fister can return soon and provide a boost to our pitching staff: his performance down the stretch last season was integral to our success. 

In other Tigers news, shout out to Fernando Rodney for his strong start to the season in Tampa Bay.  Rodney looked awful for the Los Angeles Angels last year, so it's encouraging to see him recover and pitch well this year.  Also, a difficult farewell to Brandon Inge, who's been a strong contributor to the Tigers organization for over a decade.  Inge had some solid years for the team, but father time has been catching up with him, and he is no longer a factor at the plate.

Looking forward to a weekend filled with baseball, basketball, friends, poker, and freedom.  I'll try and blog tomorrow about the Delmon Young situation.

@RobBrereton

Poker Blog: Survivor Tournaments @ Canterbury Park

Quick TR from a session I had at Canterbury yesterday.  Really enjoy playing there, as they have limits for all bankrolls/skill levels.  The staff there is very friendly, and the food is great too! Yesterday I played two of the 300+30 survivor tournaments, which are probably one of the best games in the house when it comes to rake. Played three quite interesting hands.

Hand 1: Blinds are 1-3, stacks are effectively $300 for all parties. Hero is in the HJ with KQ
UTG limps, UTG+1 limps, Hero limps in the HJ, SB completes, and BB checks. Flop comes K97. SB, a solid reg, bets out a pot sized bet of 15, a very interesting bet. BB folds, UTG flats, Hero flats. At this point in the hand I felt like the SB either flopped two pair or even a baby flush, not sure about UTG. Turn comes a Q giving me top two with the 2nd nut FD. SB bets out $40 into a pot of $45, UTG folds, I call with my top two and 2nd nut FD. At this point in the hand I felt there was a decent chance I was ahead, and if I wasn't i figured I had at least 11 outs to win (7 spades + 2K + 2Q). River comes a total blank, think it was a 2. SB thinks for a minute and then checks. Puts me to a decision, is he giving up on the hand with say like an A9x for middle pair + NFD, or does he have a baby flush/two pair/ set that he's planning on c/c with. I decide to check my KQ, as at this point the only hands I can beat are 97, K7, K9, and maybe missed nut spades. I check and UTG shows 77 for a set of 7's. Unlucky that he had such a strong hand there, but happy I only lost $53 on the hand.

Hand 2: Blinds are 2-3, I open QQ UTG for $11. My effective stack is $600. MP flats, Button with an effective stack of $550 flats as well, SB folds, and BB calls. Flop comes out 953. BB checks, I fire $28 into the $46 pot, MP folds, Button calls, and BB folds. We go heads up to the turn, and the turn is a Q, a phenomenal card for my hand if the Button flopped a big hand. I bet $60 into a pot of $102, and the Button raises to $130 without even counting it out. I have some hand history with this guy, and know that he can play a wide assortment of hands, but also hand reads very well. I'm fairly sure he won't put me on QQ or 99, as I would prolly check top set on the flop, so I decided to shove instead of flatting like I would against most players. The reasons why I shoved is (1) shoving would be the only real bet I could put in as a bluff to win the hand (2) didn't think he would ever fold a set of 3's or 5's if he had those hand (3) He knows I am a competent player and am capable of folding AA or KK to his turn raise. After I shove he goes into the tank for a while, and starts asking me if i have a set of 5's. I try not to give away any information, but at this point I think he may have bottom set or some random two pair. He folds facedown after another minute claiming he mucked bottom set, which if he did would have been a fantastic laydown.

Hand 3: Hero is in the BB, and this is the first hand of another 300+30 survivor. Blinds are 1-3, and UTG raises to $9, MP flats, Button calls, and Hero calls with A8 from the BB. Flop comes 442. Hero checks, UTG bets $20, MP folds, Button folds, and Hero flats the $20. At this point in the hand UTG, a solid reg, could have a very wide range of hands, but I like my chances to win the pot. Turn comes a 7. At this point I'm pretty torn about how to proceed with the hand, I don't mind c/r or c/c looking back, but as played a led out for $35. I know it's very difficult for UTG to represent a 4, so I'm leading out with the intention of 3-betting or, calling turn and betting most rivers if UTG raises. After a bit of thought, UTG decided to fold, so he probably had 55 or 66 at best.

Thoughts on my line on this hand? I think check/raising the turn might have been better.

I will try and post a poker blog once a month or so, as I've been working pretty hard at my game recently.

@RobBrereton

Red Sox in the Red

Back again today taking a look at the state of Bobby V and the Boston Red Sox.  I'm currently watching the Red Sox - Rangers game on ESPN3 as I write this.  Currently the score is 4-2, as Franklin Morales gave up a single to Josh Hamilton, intentionally walked Adrian Beltre, walked Nelson Cruz, and then hit Craig Gentry on the foot to let a run in.  Although it looks like the Sox will end up losing this one, let's take a look at the positives.

Beckett pitched well tonight, but not well enough

First, Josh Beckett had a solid outing, limiting the high powered Rangers to 3R on 7H and 1BB in 7 innings of work.  His ERA now stands at 5.03 for the season, which looks like a natural regression from his inflated 2.89 ERA last season.  Beckett's 'stuff'' looked pretty good for the most part tonight, as he retired 11 straight batters after allowing a 2-R HR to Mike Napoli in the 4th inning.  Unfortunately, he had to face young stud Derek Holland, who only allowed 4H and 2R through 7 innings.  However, Holland did accomplish this against a Red Sox lineup missing Jacoby Ellsbury and Carl Crawford.

The injuries to Crawford and Ellsbury may make the difference between the Red Sox making and missing the playoffs.  Crawford is in Florida playing in extended spring training, and hopes to return to the big leagues within two weeks.  Ellsbury, unfortunately, is dealing with a shoulder injury that should keep him out until early June.  These injuries, plus the drama Bobby Valentine brings to the club, should spell some trouble for a franchise that narrowly missed the playoffs last season.  In addition to their injury woes, the Red Sox have struggled mightily with their pitching.

It's no secret the Red Sox wanted to sign Roy Oswalt this off season.  However Oswalt wasn't interested in pitching out east, and hopes to sign with the St. Louis Cardinals midseason.  Unfortunately for the Red Sox, that meant they had two rotation slots to fill to accompany Lester, Beckett and Bucholz.  Felix Doubront and Daniel Bard are currently the #4 and #5 starters, and neither has been stellar.  The transition from relief to the rotation wasn't going to be a cakewalk for Bard, but if the Red Sox want to make the playoffs they will need him to develop into a reliable starter.

Red Sox are counting on Bailey to excel as closer when he returns

Big Picture: the Boston Red Sox are definitely a better team then their 4-8 record indicates, but, the playoffs might seem like a stretch this year.  The Red Sox will need strong efforts from Lester and Beckett, along with their offense maintaining what it accomplished last season.  If David Ortiz and Adrian Gonzalez can hit for as high an average as they did last season, this team should be in great shape offensively with the return of Kevin Youkilis.  Yet, I feel like pitching will truly define this team.  What will make the difference between a wild card birth and missing the postseason will arguably by the #3-5 starters and their relief pitching.  If Bucholz can display the form he did on 2010, and if Aceves, Melancon, and Bailey can excel in the pen, this team has a chance.  But if not, they'll be looking for answers again.  And unlike last season, they won't be able to blame it on the beer and fried chicken.

Make sure to follow me @RobBrereton on Twitter! Will try to keep posting more frequently.

Tigers vs Royals 4/16 Reflections

Hey guys, quick reflection on the Tigers-Royals game from tonight.  It's been difficult trying to watch Detroit sports games here in Minneapolis, but I've been able to occasional stream parts of games, albeit illegally. 

Expect to see a lot more of Danny Duffy in the future

As great as Justin Verlander pitched tonight, I've gotta give credit to Royals second year starter Danny Duffy.  He went 6 2/3 strong innings, allowing only eight base runners (7 hits 1 walk) with seven strikeouts.  Last week Duffy shut out the anemic Oakland Athletics with six scoreless frames, but the Tigers are a whole different animal.  Duffy impressively didn't allow a hit to either Miguel Cabrera or Prince Fielder, keeping the Royals in the game.  Look for him to continue to improve as the season progresses.

Next, props to Austin Jackson for contributing to the offensive charge yet again.  I feel like last season he was heralded far more for his defensive heroics, and frowned upon for his offensive ineptitude.  Although he is still in pace to strike out 170 times, if he can improve his batting average to .270 or better he should be able to score 105-110 runs with the bats behind him. Currently Jackson sports an OBP of .512, an absurd total compared to his .317 mark from last season.  This current rate is most likely due to the 7 walks he's drawn, which over a full 162 games would lead to 112 walks, twice his career high.  If Jackson can improve his OBP to .360, and record 65-70 walks this season, he will be one of the most effective leadoff hitters in the American League.  I'd predict a .270/.360 line from him with 14 HR's and 55 RBI for the 2012 season.

Expect Cabrera to break out of his slump Tuesday vs KC

I'm hoping to watch more of the game tomorrow as opposed to following it on my computer.  I haven't seen Drew Smyly pitch yet, so naturally I'm eager to see how he does against the Royals offense.  Historically, Detroit hitters have done alright against tomorrow's starter Bruce Chen.  Tigers are hitting .246 against him in 130 plate appearances.  However, if you eliminate the statistics of Brandon Inge and Gerald Laird (both of whom are unlucky to start tomorrow), the Tigers are hitting a healthy .306 against the Royals starter, with Miguel Cabrera slugging an awesome 1.111.  I expect the Tigers to come out swinging tomorrow and put up 6-7 runs, as they'll probably need to if Smyly wants to get the win.

A Quick Look at the Minnesota Twins

The Minnesota sports world had been pretty dull for the past month or so.  The Wild haven't been relevant since January, and ever since Ricky Rubio went down with a knee injury the Timberwolves have fallen off.  In addition, both Nikola Petkovic and Kevin Love have missed time with injuries.  Thus, the Timberwolves fell out of playoff contention at the beginning of March.

Big things expected from Mauer and Morneau this year

Thankfully, the Twins are back in action, and have been since April 6th.  Considering how disappointing last season was for Twins fans, a healthy Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau must assure for better results, right?  Not so fast...

Besides two implosions by the Los Angeles Angels bullpen, the Twins have been poor on offense and worse pitching.  They were outscored by a total of 15-5 in a three game sweep vs. the perennial powerhouse Baltimore Orioles.  This was especially disappointing considering the lack of depth among the Orioles pitching staff.  Jason Hammel, Tommy Hunter, and Jake Arrieta aren't exactly All-Star caliber pitchers.  Since that first, depressing series against the Orioles, the Twins have proceeded to go 2-4 against the Los Angeles Angels and the Texas Rangers.  This isn't a bad stat line playing against two teams that should both make the playoffs, but it would've been nice to see the Twins go .500 or better in their first homestand of the season.

Here's a few takeaways from the season so far:

(1) Josh Willingham is proving to be a solid acquisition.
Through today's game, Willingham is hitting .419 with 4 HR and 7 RBI.  Obviously we don't expect Willingham to hit above .400 for the entire season, but if he could hit .275 or .280 with 25 home runs he would return a lot of value to the Twins. 

(2) Liriano's confidence is shaken.

Minnesota needs Liriano to return to form

Francisco Liriano has been unpredictable on the mound the past two seasons, and that has continued in his first two starts of the season.  Liriano has allowed an abysmal 10 earned runs in 9 innings, not to mention 20 base runners in those 9 innings.  If Liriano wants to be successful this year he will have to limit his walk rate, as walking 5 batters per 9 innings is unacceptable.  I wouldn't surprised if he turns in a solid start soon though, as maybe Gardenhire can instill some confidence in him.

(3) As poor as Matt Capps has been...
He still has a long leash when it comes to the closer's role.  This is mainly due to the struggles of set up man Glen Perkins.  Perkins blew a lead to the Rangers in the final game of their series, by serving up a home run to Josh Hamilton.  Although he looked solid in his first three appearances of the series, his ERA now sits at 8.31.  Despite his poor ERA, Perkins does have a 6:1 K/BB rate.  Look for him to improve on his ERA, but not to assume the closer's role for a long time, if at all this season.

It's Been a While.. and The Masters

Hi guys, sorry about the lack of posts within the past few months.  I've been pretty busy adjusting to life in Minneapolis, as I moved out here on January 3rd.  In addition to my job at Wells Fargo Advisers in the Account Maintenance Department, I've also been interning part-time as an Organizer on a political campaign.  The Twin Cities are great to live in, with tons of different attractions to visit, and activities to pursue throughout the year.  I'm truly excited for what the summer could potentially bring here. 

As much praise as I have for Minneapolis and St. Paul, I'm in the process of applying for a few jobs and internships out in California.  My mother grew up in California, and met my father while they were both in graduate school in the Bay Area.  Although my parents reside in Michigan, I still have a lot of older family out in California that I would love to spend more time with.  Living in Michigan and Minnesota hasn't afforded me the luxury of doing that, so hopefully one of those opportunities comes through.  One internship I'm applying for is at Bleacher Report where I would help in the Breaking News department.  Being the sports junkie that I am, this would be an excellent fit.  Not only would I be able to work in San Francisco, but also work doing something I am extremely passionate about.

Great round yesterday, Phil

That being said, the final round of The Masters at Augusta National is underway.  Unlike last year, Tiger Woods won't be making a charge up the leaderboard, but similar to last year's results I don't think a big name will win it this year.  Judging by the current leaderboard, I'm essentially saying the 2012 Masters Champion will not be Phil Mickelson.  Peter Hanson shot a stroke lower than Phil yesterday, and holds that margin of a lead on Phil going into the final round.  I also like Louis Oosthuzien's chances, as he proved he can handle the pressure of a major's final round at The Open Championship on 2010.  Lee Westwood is also capable of shooting a low round, and I feel like he is hungrier than most for his first major championship.

I hope to be updating more regularly and will try and update my blog design as well.  Make sure to follow me on Twitter at the handle listed below.

Rob Brereton
@RobBrereton