Monday, November 21, 2011

Michigan: A Potential Benefactor of the New Big Ten Conference Championship Game

This past weekend chaos ensued throughout college football.  Oklahoma State, Oregon, Clemson, and Oklahoma all lost, setting the stage for a potential LSU-Alabama rematch in the national championship.  Clearly Alabama's BCS hopes and dreams were dramatically improved this weekend. 

Another team that benefits from the changes in the current standings? The University of Michigan.  Michigan defeated then #16 Nebraska convincingly, 45-17, and subsequently moved up to #15 in the BCS standings.  Assuming Michigan beats Ohio St next week (knock on wood!) the Wolverines should be able to make it into a BCS game as an at-large team. Here's how:

At-large teams must meet these requirements:
  • have won at least 9 regular season games
  • be among the top-14 teams in the final BCS standings
Both those are easily attainable if Michigan wins their game against Ohio St, as surely one team ranked above Michigan will lose next week.  There's a good chance either Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma St, South Carolina falls to Clemson, Georgia loses to Georgia Tech, or Michigan St drops one to Northwestern.  Any of those would push Michigan to at least #14 in the BCS standings.  With that ranking attained, the BCS would love to take Michigan for an at-large bid, as Michigan fans travel very well and support a very strong football brand.

Can Fitz and co. make it to the BCS?
A giant reason why Michigan may be afforded this opportunity in Brady Hoke's first season is the new Big Ten alignment.  Assuming Wisconsin and Michigan St. play for the Big Ten title game, one of those teams will finish with three losses and surely fall from their current ranking.  If this were last year, both Wisconsin and Michigan St could close their seasons with wins over Penn St and Northwestern, respectively.  Without the current Big Ten Title game, Michigan St would be crowned league champion as it only lost one league game.  They would they head to the Rose Bowl.  However, Wisconsin and Michigan could feasibly both be ranked in the top-14 of the BCS following next week's games, giving Wisconsin the opportunity to potentially be selected ahead of Michigan for a BCS at-large birth if not for the new Big Ten divisional alignment. 

So here's to a new Big Ten and a fresh start for U of M! Now hopefully we can beat our hated rivals from Ohio for the first time since 2003...