Sunday, December 30, 2012

It's AP vs Peyton, but why not Aaron?

In a scintillating finish to the NFL regular season, both Peyton Manning and Adrian Peterson capped off their respectively impressive seasons with strong performances.  Peyton carved up the lowly Kansas City Chiefs to the tune of 23-29 for 304 yards and three touchdowns in a 38-3 victory, while AP ran train over the Green Bay Packers for the 2nd time this year, willing the Minnesota Vikings to a 37-34 victory and a wild card slot with 199 yards on 34 carries, and a touchdown thru the air and on the ground.  The Vikings will travel to Lambeau Field to play the Packers for a third time in the first round of the playoffs next week.  Considering both Peterson and Manning overcame career-threatening injuries, their cases for MVP are certainly more compelling than say Tom Brady's, who's put together a fantastic season, but without the flash or intrigue of Manning or Peterson. 
Rodgers followed up his 2011 MVP season with a strong 2012

At this point it's probably a toss up between AP and Peyton for the MVP award, and I'm not necessarily saying that neither of them deserve it.  But, I truly feel that Aaron Rodgers presents just as convincing of a case for MVP as Manning.  Clearly Rodgers hasn't been the most outstanding player, as AP and Megatron stand out as the players with the most outsanding performances throughout the season, but I think his hat deserves to be in the ring for the most valuable player alongside Manning and Peterson.  Considering his position, I won't try and compare Rodgers statistics to those of Adrian Peterson.  What I will do is present his case along side Peyton Manning's.

Presented below is a table comparing Rodgers stats from 2012 to his numbers in 2011:


Year
Pass Yards
Pass TD’s
INT
Comp %
Rating
QBR
Rush Yd/TD
2011
4,643
45
6
68.3
122.5
86.2
257/3
2012
4,295
39
8
67.2
107.8
72.4
259/2


As you can see, Rodgers numbers have dropped off from his MVP season last year, which is understandable.  The Green Bay Packers finished the regular season at 15-1 last year, but dropped to 11-5 this year against albeit a more difficult schedule, and amidst a plethora of injuries to some key players.  I'll discuss the shortcomings of the rest of the Packers squad shortly, but first let's compare Rodgers performance to Peyton Manning and the value of each teams respective defenses.

Here's a side by side of Rodgers vs. P. Manning in 2012:


Player
Pass Yards
Pass TD’s
INT
Comp %
Rating
QBR
Rush Yd/TD
Manning
4,659
37
11
68.8
106.3
85.0
6/0
Rodgers
4,295
39
8
67.2
107.8
72.4
259/2


Manning had a fantastic year for Denver but benefited from weak competition
In terms of statistical contributions to their team's, it seems as though Manning and Rodgers are in a deadlock.  Manning passed for more yards, held a slightly higher completion percentage, and scored higher in QBR (Total Quarterback Rating), while Rodgers had a better TD/INT ratio, a slightly higher rating, and ran the ball significantly better.  Although Manning had more passing yards, Manning also faced the Oakland Raiders 28th ranked defense and the Kansas City Chiefs 25th ranked defense a total of four times, while Rodgers faced the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd ranked defenses of Seattle, San Francisco, and Chicago, respectively a total of four times. 

Quality of the opposition is a significant reason to put Rodgers in the conversation with Manning for MVP. But how about value to his respective team? Let's do a side by side of the defenses of both the Packers and Broncos this year, which should accentuate Rodgers value even more.


Team
Points Allowed
PPG
YPG
TO
Sacks
Packers
336
21
336.8
15
51
Broncos
289
18.06
290.8
24
25


Besides sacks, which the Packers led the NFL in, the Broncos were clearly the superior team on defense.  This defense led the Broncos to the AFC West Title last season (sorry guys, it wasn't Tim Tebow's doing) and dominated it's divisional opponents again this year.  Does a strong defense diminish Peyton Manning's contributions as a player? Absolutely not.  But does it diminish his value compared to Aaron Rodgers? Absolutely.  Rodgers faced more adversity regarding not only his opponents, but also with injuries within his team.  To name a few, Charles Woodson, Clay Mathews, Greg Jennings, and Jordy Nelson all missed significant time with injuries this season.  All of those players have been significant contributors to the success of the Green Bay Packers the past few seasons.  The fact that Rodgers led the Packers to an 11-5 record and the NFC North Division Title speaks volumes about his value to the Green Bay Packers, and exemplifies why he should be considered for the Most Valuable Player award for the 2012 NFL season.