It's AP vs Peyton, but why not Aaron?

In a scintillating finish to the NFL regular season, both Peyton Manning and Adrian Peterson capped off their respectively impressive seasons with strong performances.  Peyton carved up the lowly Kansas City Chiefs to the tune of 23-29 for 304 yards and three touchdowns in a 38-3 victory, while AP ran train over the Green Bay Packers for the 2nd time this year, willing the Minnesota Vikings to a 37-34 victory and a wild card slot with 199 yards on 34 carries, and a touchdown thru the air and on the ground.  The Vikings will travel to Lambeau Field to play the Packers for a third time in the first round of the playoffs next week.  Considering both Peterson and Manning overcame career-threatening injuries, their cases for MVP are certainly more compelling than say Tom Brady's, who's put together a fantastic season, but without the flash or intrigue of Manning or Peterson. 

Rodgers followed up his 2011 MVP season with a strong 2012

At this point it's probably a toss up between AP and Peyton for the MVP award, and I'm not necessarily saying that neither of them deserve it.  But, I truly feel that Aaron Rodgers presents just as convincing of a case for MVP as Manning.  Clearly Rodgers hasn't been the most outstanding player, as AP and Megatron stand out as the players with the most outsanding performances throughout the season, but I think his hat deserves to be in the ring for the most valuable player alongside Manning and Peterson.  Considering his position, I won't try and compare Rodgers statistics to those of Adrian Peterson.  What I will do is present his case along side Peyton Manning's.

Presented below is a table comparing Rodgers stats from 2012 to his numbers in 2011:

Year	Pass Yards	Pass TD’s	INT	Comp %	Rating	QBR	Rush Yd/TD
2011	4,643	45	6	68.3	122.5	86.2	257/3
2012	4,295	39	8	67.2	107.8	72.4	259/2

As you can see, Rodgers numbers have dropped off from his MVP season last year, which is understandable.  The Green Bay Packers finished the regular season at 15-1 last year, but dropped to 11-5 this year against albeit a more difficult schedule, and amidst a plethora of injuries to some key players.  I'll discuss the shortcomings of the rest of the Packers squad shortly, but first let's compare Rodgers performance to Peyton Manning and the value of each teams respective defenses.

Here's a side by side of Rodgers vs. P. Manning in 2012:

Player	Pass Yards	Pass TD’s	INT	Comp %	Rating	QBR	Rush Yd/TD
Manning	4,659	37	11	68.8	106.3	85.0	6/0
Rodgers	4,295	39	8	67.2	107.8	72.4	259/2

Manning had a fantastic year for Denver but benefited from weak competition

In terms of statistical contributions to their team's, it seems as though Manning and Rodgers are in a deadlock.  Manning passed for more yards, held a slightly higher completion percentage, and scored higher in QBR (Total Quarterback Rating), while Rodgers had a better TD/INT ratio, a slightly higher rating, and ran the ball significantly better.  Although Manning had more passing yards, Manning also faced the Oakland Raiders 28th ranked defense and the Kansas City Chiefs 25th ranked defense a total of four times, while Rodgers faced the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd ranked defenses of Seattle, San Francisco, and Chicago, respectively a total of four times. 

Quality of the opposition is a significant reason to put Rodgers in the conversation with Manning for MVP. But how about value to his respective team? Let's do a side by side of the defenses of both the Packers and Broncos this year, which should accentuate Rodgers value even more.

Team	Points Allowed	PPG	YPG	TO	Sacks
Packers	336	21	336.8	15	51
Broncos	289	18.06	290.8	24	25

Besides sacks, which the Packers led the NFL in, the Broncos were clearly the superior team on defense.  This defense led the Broncos to the AFC West Title last season (sorry guys, it wasn't Tim Tebow's doing) and dominated it's divisional opponents again this year.  Does a strong defense diminish Peyton Manning's contributions as a player? Absolutely not.  But does it diminish his value compared to Aaron Rodgers? Absolutely.  Rodgers faced more adversity regarding not only his opponents, but also with injuries within his team.  To name a few, Charles Woodson, Clay Mathews, Greg Jennings, and Jordy Nelson all missed significant time with injuries this season.  All of those players have been significant contributors to the success of the Green Bay Packers the past few seasons.  The fact that Rodgers led the Packers to an 11-5 record and the NFC North Division Title speaks volumes about his value to the Green Bay Packers, and exemplifies why he should be considered for the Most Valuable Player award for the 2012 NFL season.

Analyzing the James Harden Trade

In the biggest transaction since the Dwight Howard blockbuster this summer, Oklahoma City traded James Harden to the Houston Rockets this past weekend.  The Thunder also included Cole Aldrich, Daequan Cook, and Lazar Haywood with Harden, in exchange for Kevin Martin, Jeremy Lamb, two first-round picks, and a second round pick.  The reasoning behind this deal?  OKC was unwilling to offer Harden a max contract of $60 million over for years, so it made sense to trade him now as opposed to letting him walk at the end of the year.  Let's take a look at the assets OKC acquired in the trade:

Will Martin be able to make up for the loss of Harden?

(1) Kevin Martin

Martin has been a solid SG in the NBA for quite a while, putting up excellent numbers for both the Sacramento Kings and the Rockets over the past six seasons. Although Martin is an injury risk, he's been dynamic when available, averaging over 18 ppg during his NBA career.  In addition, he's in the final year of his contract, so he could be a valuable trade deadline piece if OKC wants to trade for a scorer in the front court to keep up with the Los Angeles Lakers in the Western Conference.

(2) Jeremy Lamb

An explosive guard out of UConn, Lamb was drafted #12 overall by the Rockets in this summer's draft. Although he has a high ceiling, I'm not sure how Lamb fits into the plans for OKC.  They already have Russell Westbrook at PG and a capable backup in Eric Maynor.  Maybe OKC is playing me and already has plans to trade him in the near future, but I just don't see how he fits their current team.

(3) Draft Picks

OKC received three draft picks, two 1st rounders and a 2 round pick, in the trade.  At first glance, this makes the trade look like a steal for OKC. Two first-round picks for a player that was going to leave via free agency once the season ended?!

Not so fast.  One of these picks Houston received from the Toronto Raptors in the Kyle Lowry trade.  Unfortunately for the Thunder, this pick is lottery protected, thus cannot be a top-15 draft pick.  The second 1st round pick they received was from the Lakers, so most likely that pick will be somewhere in the mid-20's. Considering how top-heavy recent draft classes have been, it'll be very difficult, if not impossible, for the Thunder to find someone as valuable as Harden in the draft.

Thus, were the Rockets the 'winners' of this trade? Let's investigate

Harden should lead the Rockets for the next 5 years

Not including the rest of the players OKC sent to Houston as filler, is Harden, who just signed a five year $80 million dollar extension, worth it for the Houston Rockets?  I believe so.  Houston hasn't had a dynamic shooting guard since Tracy McGrady, and praise Kevin Martin as much as you want for his shooting ability, but Harden can contribute in all facets of the game.  I think Harden will be able to make the Rockets 'his team' and take on large scoring and leadership roles. 

In addition, the Rockets are establishing a strong young core. Daryl Morey and co have assembled a very young starting lineup of Jeremy Lin, Harden, Chandler Parsons, Marcus Morris, and Omer Asik.  In fact, if you look at the Rockets roster, they only have one player older than 26!  With a bunch of young pieces in place, the Rockets look to not only improve this year, but possibly contend by 2014 or 2015.  Oklahoma City, on the other hand, just lost a player that they will have an extremely hard time replacing.  I would say that the Rockets were the clear winners in this deal, and look forward to seeing their team improve throughout this season.

Can the Lions Rebound?

As a Detroit sports fan, I've been spoiled over the past decade.  The Detroit Pistons won an NBA title in 2004, the Red Wings won Stanley Cups in 2002 and 2008, the Tigers are in the World Series for the 2nd time in the past seven years, and the Lions are finally relevant again.  In spite of the Pistons current struggles, it's been a fantastic time to be a fan of Motor City teams... until now. Let's face it. The Detroit Lions won't be making the playoffs again this year and here's three reasons why:

(1) A tougher schedule

Considering the Lions finished 2nd in their division last year, they play the 2nd place finishers in the other NFC divisions. Those teams are as follows: Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Arizona.  The Lions already escaped with a victory against the Eagles, and should have some trouble with the Cardinals despite their poor quarterback play.  The Falcons? Currently the only undefeated team in the NFL and a passing attack that should obliterate the Lions secondary.  Not looking good so far.

Stafford hasn't been as sharp in 2012

Divisional opponents have also improved this year.  The Packers are still loaded on offense and should make the playoffs despite a sub par defense. The Bears already have a victory against the Lions and have looked sharp on offense and defense (not so much on offense against us Monday night).  Most importantly, the Vikings are respectable again this year, and are off to a fast start. It will be tough to catch all three of these teams from the bottom of the NFC North.

(2) Matt Stafford

Coming off a fantastic year last season, expectations were high for the Lions 4th year QB.  However, 2011 was the first full season Stafford had put together.  Defenses hadn't had a chance to put forth schemes designated to stop him and the Lions passing game.  This year, Stafford is facing more pressure.  Although he isn't taking more sacks or throwing more interceptions than last season, Stafford's YPA (Yards Per Attempt) is down to 6.64 to 7.60 from last season, while his completion percentage is slightly lower, falling from 63% in 2011 to 62% in 2012.  Those declines may be minimal statistically, but the offense has clearly had more issues moving the ball and scoring in 2012 than it had in 2011.

(3) Defense

Statistically, defense hasn't changed much for the Lions in 2012 than in 2011.  This is concerning though, as the Lions still have to play Green Bay twice and the Houston Texans once, two very high scoring teams.  Below I've assembled a chart to document the Lions defensive struggles.  2012 statistics have been multiplied to average out to the stats of a 16-game season.

YEAR	Sacks	TO	Yards Allowed	Points Allowed
2011	41	34	367.6	387
2012	45	16	319.3	400

Suh and the rest of the Lions D will need to force more turnovers

Clearly the difference between this year and last is the lack of turnovers forced.  The Lions have essentially gone from forcing two turnovers per game to one.  Part of the problem is a struggling secondary.  Opposing teams know that the strength of the Lions defense is their front seven, which gives them an advantage with their play calling.  The Lions must overcompensate on their secondary coverage, which allows opposing teams to run the ball more effectively, as the Lions are afraid of giving up big plays.  This overcompensation is evident in the current defensive statistics, as the Lions are currently allowing only 210 passing YPG, good for 6th among NFL defenses, yet are allowing 109 rushing YPG, good for 16th among NFL defenses despite their strong defensive front.

Can the Lions overcome these issues on both sides of the ball to make the playoffs?  I highly doubt it. The NFC conference as a whole is much stronger than the AFC, and the Lions division is extremely competitive.  Even if we start forcing more turnovers on defense and the offense starts clicking, it will be tough to overcome our current deficit in the NFC North. Unfortunately for Lions fans like myself, the playoffs look like an extreme long shot in 2012.