Cabrera vs Trout: The AL MVP Race

I've been biting my tongue on this one for a while... but now it is finally time to let it all out...

Miguel Cabrera should, and deserves to be, the 2012 AL MVP over Mike Trout.

A true revelation this season, Mike Trout rocked the baseball world in 2012

Let me start with this.  There are many ways to interpret the word 'valuable.'  Many ESPN or Fangraphs analysts would associate valuable with WAR - Wins Above Replacement.  WAR determines how much additional value a player adds to his team over a fill in at that position.  That value is measured in wins.  Currently Mike Trout has the highest WAR of any player in the AL at 10.3.  However, does that truly mean the Angels would have won 10 less games without him? Last year's CF, Peter Bourjos, had a WAR of 4.5.  Thus, isn't Mike Trouts true WAR only valued at 5.8, as Bourjos would've likely been the alternative in CF? I'll designate this value tWAR for true wins above replacement.

Considering we've subjected Trout to such scrutiny, let's look at the tWAR of Miguel Cabrera.  Most of the sabermetrics crowd laud Trout for his defense and base running, while criticizing Cabrera for his struggles in those same facets of the game.  However, Cabrera still managed a WAR of 7.3, T-2nd in the AL, despite negative returns in the base running and fielding categories.  In terms of tWAR, Cabrera's can be calculated as so:

(2012 Cabrera) - (2011 Betemit) - (2011 Inge) - (2011 Cabrera - 2012 Fielder)

Since Brandon Inge played 3B for the first half of the 2011 season we must include his WAR.  Also, considering Cabrera moved from 1st to 3rd this year, we must calculate the value gained/lost with the current 1st baseman, Prince Fielder.

(7.3) - (0.4) - (-0.4 ) - (7.2 - 4.9) = 5.0 tWAR

Thus Cabrera's tWAR = 5.0.  This number is less than Trout's tWAR of 5.8, but significantly closer than his WAR of 7.3 compared to the 10.3 of Trout.

Taking a look at more traditional metrics, I've assembled a chart to compare the MVP candidates:

Player	BA	HR	RBI	Runs	SB	OPS	BA RISP	OBP
Mike Trout	.324	30	83	129	49	.948	.327	.397
Miguel Cabrera	.331	44	139	109	4	1.002	.356	.394

Cabrera clearly has the edge in the 'Triple Crown' categories of batting average, home runs, and runs batted in.  Before the sabermetric area, these numbers alone would put Cabrera on the podium.  However, considering the impressive season Trout is having, he needs a bit more than that.  Let's analyze some of the other categories to show why Cabrera still deserves to win:

(1) The true value of runs scored.

Miggy for MVP!

Trout has scored 20 more runs than Cabrera this year, impressive considering he's played 20 less games.  However, runs scored reflects a lot on the hitters behind you in the lineup.  It's not too difficult to cross the plate frequently with Albert Pujols and Torii Hunter batting .286 and .314 behind you, respectively.  After Prince Fielder, the Tigers have relatively poor hitting in the 5-9 spots, as Alex Avila, Jhonny Peralta, and Delmon Young have all struggled this year.  This explains why Cabrera's run scored this year is slightly lower than in 2011 despite a higher batting average and more home runs.

(2) OPS
Cabrera leads the American League in On Base + Slugging Percentage among qualified players (Big Papi doesn't have enough plate appearances despite a higher OBP).  OPS essentially measures how good a hitter is over the course of the season, as it combines their on base percentage with their power.  Trout does has the second highest qualifying OPS behind Cabrera, so credit must be given to him as hitter.

(3) BA w/RISP
I think this is the most telling metric when defining the most 'valuable' player.  I see valuable as who creates the most runs for their team.  Cabrera has done that not only with 139 RBI, but also with a .356 batting average with runners in scoring position.  Trout only has a .327 BA w/RISP.  Trout's number is still solid, as it's higher than his nominal batting average of .324, but Cabrera's truly stands out.  If there's a clutch factor in baseball, Cabrera has it, as he's came through when his team needs it most. 

I understand that some might think hitting 25 points about your normal batting average with RISP could be attributed to luck, but something has to be said about the clutch factor of the best hitter in the American League.  Miguel Cabrera time and time again has gotten the 'big hit' for the Tigers this year in the 8th, 9th, and extra innings.  Plays like that stand out, and a player that can perform like that in crunch time is a truly exceptional one. 

So despite the emergence of a fantastic rookie and superstar in Mike Trout, the MVP award belongs to Miguel Cabrera this year.  He's not only been the best hitter throughout the season, but the best with runners on base, and the best when it matters most: when the game is on the line.