Tuesday, October 8, 2013

Ultimate Overlay Tournament Recap

Hi guys, since my last blog received so many hits (over 100!) I've decided to change my focus to poker for the time being.   For those that are hoping for more entries in which I dive deep into my emotional past and the various existential crises I've experienced, don't expect too much more of that.  I look at poker in a very matter of fact, mathematical way.  Regardless, I'm excited to share my insights with my followers and look forward to hearing what you think.  So, if you follow on Twitter, @robbrereton , please provide feedback if you wish!

Last Thursday I played the Ultimate Overlay Tournament at Canterbury Park in Shakopee, MN.  This tournament, now in it's second year, is the brain child of Winmark CEO John Morgan, who has had an enormous positive impact on the Minnesota poker community.  Morgan pledged to donate a portion of his winnings in the $111,111 One Drop this summer at the WSOP to the Ultimate Overlay prizepool.  Although Morgan did not cash in the event, the event did raise over $550,000 for Guy Laliberte's One Drop Charity.  Regardless, the Ultimate Overlay Tournament and Canterbury Park guaranteed a $100,000 prize pool for a buy in of only $130.  The tournament was capped at 850 players (no rebuys) and divided into four Day 1's.

For the second straight year, I decided to play Day 1D.  Last year I bought my ticket in July and I did the same this year, purchasing it from a friend who I play the Survival tournaments with at Canterbury.  There's a tremendous amount of value in this tournament considering the number of recreational players that enter, so I always make sure to buy a ticket early in fear of it selling out! I was seated at Table 20 Seat 5 and arrived at the end of the first level (right on time for me!) to a table full of unknowns and Mike Schneider in the one seat.  For those that don't know who Mike is he has over one million in both live and online earnings, winning the FPC Main Event in 2012 for a cool $63K.  When I sat down Mike already had 50K in front of him, 2.5x starting stack, so I expected him to play almost every pot considering he was 500BB deep. 

After folding the first 15 hands or so I finally played a hand at 100/200.  Dealt QJo in the hijack, I called a MP raise to 600, as did the button, SB, BB and an UTG limper.  The flop came out J108 rainbow, which is a decent flop for my hand.  Unfortunately with 5 players in the hand this texture is one to be cautious with in a multiway pot.  The SB led out for 1400, BB fold, UTG called, MP called, and I folded my hand.  In this spot I am probably beat or up against drawing hands with massive equity against me like A9, AQ, or KQ.  Sure enough a 9 came on the turn, which would've given me a Q high straight.  SB led out for 2000, UTG called and MP folded.  An A came on the river and SB led out for 3000, UTG instantly shoved all in, and SB folded AJ face up.  UTG proceeded to show him KQ, validating my fold as I lose a lot more than 600 chips if I peel the flop!

Next hand I played was at the 200/400 level, I had played very tight up until that point so in this hand I felt like I picked a great spot.  The HJ opened to 800 and I picked up 97o in the CO and 3-bet to 2200 with 14,300 behind following my 3-bet. My hope was to iso the original raiser and to see a flop heads up, but the SB, a new player at the table with 50,000 in chips flatted my 3-bet.  I had never seen him before but I feel like most players flat 3-bets here with hands like 22-99 and connected broadway hands like QJ, KJ, KQ,A10, AJ, and maybe even AQ and AK if they don't like 4-betting hands that aren't made.  The HJ flatted my bet as well and we saw a flop three ways with 6800 in the middle, effectively 2x my stack.  I planned on continuing on flops where I either made a pair, two pair, open ender, gut shot + two overs, and naked Ace flops.  If I flopped a nut flop like 99x, 77x, 865r, 1086r, I would peel a turn card hoping that a face card hit that connected with one of my opponent's hands.  The flop came 1075 rainbow, a great board for me against their perceived hand ranges.  The only hands I was really afraid of were 55,88,99, A10 and maybe 10xface if the HJ was opening light.  Both the SB and HJ checked to me and I continued for 3300, approximately half the pot.  I figured even if the SB or HJ called my flop bet with a hand that beat mine like 88, 99, or a weaker 10, there was still many cards that could come on the turn for me to either barrel them off the hand with a turn shove or to make me the winning hand.  After I continued for 3300, the SB thought for 30 seconds and then asked me for a count. I lifted my arms and showed him my chips.  30 seconds later he raised me to 7600, effectively putting me to the test for all my chips, and the HJ folded.  I really like his bet right here A LOT, as he is only risking 7,600 chips while essentially making me risk 14,300 to play the hand.  I figured he could be making this bet with a hand like 88, 99, A10, and maybe even 10facesuited if he flatted my 3-bet with that pre.  I don't think he would make this bet with a set, as he would be getting me to fold hands like AK and AQ that had less than 5% equity vs his hand.  However, at the same time I had never played with this player before, so trying to figure out what he was thinking was going to be difficult.  After thinking for two minutes and staring him down, I decided to fold.  He seemed to feel somewhat confident in his hand, and I would still have 11,000 in chips, good for 27 BB if I folded.  What would you do in this spot? Do you think all-in is the right play here?
Down but not out!

The next hand I played was at the 300/600 blind level. I was extremely card dead in this tournament, but knew I could get value from a strong hand if I flopped big against a weaker player. Starting with 10,500 in chips, I opened KQsc in the HJ to 1800 after MP2 limped in with 9,000 behind. I considered shoving here, and would've if there was antes, but couldn't justify shipping KQ when if I was called I would probably be racing or dominated.  Shipping all in is probably the most +EV play against a table of regulars, but I figured I could get action with a worse K or Q with the 3x raise pre.  The BB proceeded to call my raise as did the MP limper and the flop came out 998hhc. Not the greatest flop for me and a tough texture to continue on vs two opponents.  Both checked to me and I checked back hoping for a face card on the turn.  The turn came an Ah and it was checked around again.  The river came a Qs and it was checked to me, I decided to check it back here even though I usually bet this hand.  Sure enough the BB turned over A2o and won the pot, thus I was down to 8700 chips and glad I didn't value bet!

My bustout hand was pretty depressing, but a great reason why there is so much value in the Ultimate Overlay tournament. I was dealt A10o in the SB with 7800 behind at 300/600 UTG limped, MP limped, Button limped, and I shipped for 8100 total and 13.5 BB, hoping to elicit folds from all parties or a call from a dominated ace.  The BB and UTG folded, but MP began to deliberate heavily.  He started the hand with about 11K and would be putting a substantial portion of his chips at risk if he called my all in.  I put him on a small pair or a QJ, KJ type hand while he was thinking the call over, but I had seem him play some interesting hands.  After two minutes he ended up dropping in the call and the Button folded.  I quickly turned over my A10 as I knew he didn't have a dominating ace. After about 10 seconds he slowly turned over... Q3ss... I was honestly in disbelief that he had called my all in, but didn't mind the call at first. The flop came out KQ7, turn Q, river K, and sure enough his Q3 had made a full house and I was bounced from the Ultimate Overlay tournament without winning a hand! I quickly wished my remaining table mates good luck and headed to the bar!

Regardless of the disappointing outcome, I'm glad I got to play the Ultimate Overlay tournament at Canterbury Park.  Canterbury Park consistently attracts big, soft fields for their more publicized events, so I always jump at the opportunity to play tournaments like this and would encourage you to do so as well. Although I ran horribly, I had the opportunity to connect with and sweat some friends who were running deep in the tournament, which was really exciting! I'm looking forward to playing the Ultimate Overlay next year, and fortunately I won't be too difficult for me to improve on this year's result. All I need to do is win one hand! :)

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