Michigan: A Potential Benefactor of the New Big Ten Conference Championship Game

This past weekend chaos ensued throughout college football.  Oklahoma State, Oregon, Clemson, and Oklahoma all lost, setting the stage for a potential LSU-Alabama rematch in the national championship.  Clearly Alabama's BCS hopes and dreams were dramatically improved this weekend. 

Another team that benefits from the changes in the current standings? The University of Michigan.  Michigan defeated then #16 Nebraska convincingly, 45-17, and subsequently moved up to #15 in the BCS standings.  Assuming Michigan beats Ohio St next week (knock on wood!) the Wolverines should be able to make it into a BCS game as an at-large team. Here's how:

At-large teams must meet these requirements:

• have won at least 9 regular season games
• be among the top-14 teams in the final BCS standings

Both those are easily attainable if Michigan wins their game against Ohio St, as surely one team ranked above Michigan will lose next week.  There's a good chance either Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma St, South Carolina falls to Clemson, Georgia loses to Georgia Tech, or Michigan St drops one to Northwestern.  Any of those would push Michigan to at least #14 in the BCS standings.  With that ranking attained, the BCS would love to take Michigan for an at-large bid, as Michigan fans travel very well and support a very strong football brand.

Can Fitz and co. make it to the BCS?

A giant reason why Michigan may be afforded this opportunity in Brady Hoke's first season is the new Big Ten alignment.  Assuming Wisconsin and Michigan St. play for the Big Ten title game, one of those teams will finish with three losses and surely fall from their current ranking.  If this were last year, both Wisconsin and Michigan St could close their seasons with wins over Penn St and Northwestern, respectively.  Without the current Big Ten Title game, Michigan St would be crowned league champion as it only lost one league game.  They would they head to the Rose Bowl.  However, Wisconsin and Michigan could feasibly both be ranked in the top-14 of the BCS following next week's games, giving Wisconsin the opportunity to potentially be selected ahead of Michigan for a BCS at-large birth if not for the new Big Ten divisional alignment. 

So here's to a new Big Ten and a fresh start for U of M! Now hopefully we can beat our hated rivals from Ohio for the first time since 2003...

Balance in the Big Ten

Russell Wilson leads a balanced attack at Wisconsin

 

As the college football season reaches it's halfway point, it's finally time to start paying attention to the Big Ten standings.  Unlike past years, this year is different, and in a positive way.

The addition of Nebraska as the 12th member of the Big Ten guaranteed a conference with (1) Two Divisions (2) A title game between the winners of the Leaders and Legends Divisions.  Not only that, it also brings the conference more national exposure by adding this December title game.   Thus far, despite the names of the divisions, this new format seems to be successful.  Why is this the case? Balance.

The Legends Division consists of the following teams: Iowa, Michigan, Michigan St, Minnesota, Nebraska, and Northwestern. An easy way to distinguish all of the Legends Division schools is by remembering that it is all the M and N schools plus Iowa, while the Leaders Division is more of a mixed bag. The records of the team's in each respective division shows the tremendous parity created with the current alignment.

                         Legends Division

Team Name	Conference W/L	Overall W/L
Michigan State	2-0	5-1
Michigan	2-1	6-1
Nebraska	1-1	5-1
Iowa	1-1	4-2
Minnesota	0-2	1-5
Northwestern	0-3	2-4

Overall Record: 23-14 (.621)
                       
                        Leaders Division

Team Name	Conference W/L	Overall W/L
Penn State	3-0	6-1
Wisconsin	2-0	6-0
Illinois	2-1	6-1
Purdue	1-1	3-3
Ohio State	1-2	4-3
Indiana	0-3	1-6

Overall Record: 26-14  (.650)

As one can see from the charts above, the overall records of both divisions are quite comparable, with both divisions having lost the same amount of games.  Plus, there doesn't seem to be a definitive hierarchy of teams at this point in the season, with the exception of Minnesota and Indiana who are just awful.  Currently in the Legends Division, any one of Michigan State, Michigan, Nebraska, and Iowa has a chance to advance to the inaugural Big Ten Championship game.  If I had to pick a team to win this division right now it would be the Michigan State Spartans, as they are the most balanced team in the division.

The Leaders Division exudes a similar balance, as Penn State, Wisconsin, and Illinois all have a chance to face the winner of the Legends Division in the Big Ten title game.  As good as Ohio State looked last week against Illinois, I can't seem to tab them as a contender unless Wisconsin and Penn State suffer an upset or two each within the next four or five games.  However, if Michigan State can upset Wisconsin at home this weekend, Ohio State still has a shot if they can beat Wisconsin at home on October 29th.

Big Ten Picks for this week:

Indiana (1-6, 0-3) @ Iowa (4-2, 1-1)
Indiana can't get much going against anyone, let alone a decent Iowa defense.  Iowa's balanced attack led by James Vandenburg, Marvin McNutt, and Marcus Coker leads Iowa to an easy win at home.
Make it: Iowa 34 - Indiana 10

Illinois (6-1, 2-1) @ Purdue (3-3, 1-1)
This is a potential let-down game for Illinois, coming off a tough loss to Ohio St.  However, Purdue has been too inconsistent this year and the trend continues against the Illini in a close contest.
Make it: Illinois 30 - Purdue 20

Nebraska (5-1, 1-1) @ Minnesota (1-5, 0-2)
Nebraska comes off it's bye-week ready to run over a struggling Minnesota team that was crushed by Purdue last week.  Rex Burkhead and Taylor Martinez put this game out of reach by halftime.
Make it: Nebraska 45 - Minnesota 13

Penn St. (6-1, 3-0) @ Northwestern (2-4, 0-3)
Chance of an upset in this one, as Penn State's offense doesn't put up many points.  Can Dan Persa and the Wildcats win their first Big Ten game of the season and deny Joe Pa win #408? Doubtful.
Make it: Penn St 27 - Northwestern 23

And finally the Game of the Week... Wisconsin (6-0, 2-0) @ Michigan St (5-1, 2-0)
Michigan St is missing William Gholston for this game, as he was suspended yesterday by the Big Ten for punching Michigan LT Taylor Lewan in the face.  The Michigan - Michigan St game tends to get chippy, but Gholston's mistake could prove very costly as it makes it much more difficult for Michigan St to contain Russell Wilson, Monte Ball, and James White.  As strong as the Spartan defense is, I don't think they force enough turnovers to keep up with Wisconsin on the scoreboard.
Make it: Wisconsin 27 - MSU -17