It's Wide Open! Evaluating the NL MVP Race

In contrast to the AL MVP race, the NL MVP race is a very close contest with no clear favorite.  No NL batter has stood out above his peers, and although one pitcher has, that doesn't necessarily mean his performance is MVP worthy.  Nobody stands out particularly in any single category, leaving analysts a really tough decision on who to vote for.  Hopefully my analysis can help them out.

Goldschmidt's adjustments this year entrenched him in the MVP discussion

One player that must be included in the NL MVP conversation is Andrew McCutchen, CF for the Pittsburgh Pirates.  McCutchen leads the NL in WAR and has propelled the Pirates to an 81-61 record, good for first in the WC column and 8 games ahead of the closest competition for a WC birth. Similar to McCutchen, perennial MVP contender Joey Votto of the Cincinnati Reds has his team in the exact same position. Cincinnati is 82-62, tied with Pittsburgh for both WC spots and 1.5 games behind St. Louis in the NL Central.  Next, Paul Goldschmidt has put up some absurd #'s for Arizona, and has been an integral piece in the Diamondback's resurgence this season.  Finally, we have Clayton Kershaw: the best left handed pitcher in baseball on arguably the best team in baseball. Most year's I wouldn't even consider a player that only plays every five days, but Kershaw is putting up extraordinary numbers.

Just like I did for the AL MVP candidates, I went through the liberties of comparing the advanced metrics of all the NL MVP candidates.  I looked at the hitters first, and then at Kershaw. Like I did with AL candidates, I focused on a lot of the sabermetric categories that measure a hitter's complete performance, as opposed to the traditional triple crown categories.

By looking at these metrics, it seems like each candidate has their own respective strengths.  McCutchen leads the NL in WAR (Wins Above Replacement) and is a full win higher than both Goldschmidt and Votto.  He also has a lower K rate, higher batting average, better fielding, and more stolen bases than the other two.  McCutchen has a higher BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) too but he's also faster than Goldschmidt and Votto, so the high BABIP is justified.  Votto's main strength is his plate discipline. Hitting 3rd for one of the best offenses in MLB, Votto has an OBP of .430 and a BB% of 17.9%, both of which are the highest in the NL.  However, Votto only has 66 RBI this year in 144 games, which takes away some of his value as he's usually pretty strong in the RBI department.  Goldschmidt's strength is definitely his power numbers, as he leads the NL with 107 RBI and is 2nd in HR's with 31. He also sports a plus glove in the field and a SLG % of .533, tops among current NL qualifiers. 

Here's the chart I attempted to create comparing Kershaw to former SP MVP winners:

As one can see from my awkwardly composed chart, Kershaw has a better ERA and FIP than both Clemens and Verlander did when they won their MVP's in 1986 and 2011, respectively.  His HR/9 is significantly lower, sitting at 0.46, as opposed to 0.74 for Clemens and 0.86 for Verlander.  It's clear that Kershaw is pitching better than both those former MVP winners did in their MVP seasons, but does that mean Kershaw deserves the MVP award? I don't think it does.  Kershaw definitely brings substantial value to the Los Angeles Dodgers, but just as much credit for their resurgence this season must be given to players like Yasiel Puig, Hanley Ramirez, and Greinke, who have all been dynamic during the 2nd half of the season and have contributed similar WAR to Kershaw. 

McCutechen has the Pirates in position to make the playoffs

So who is deserving of the NL MVP award? As of now, I would have to go with Andrew McCutchen.  The value he brings to the Pittsburgh Pirates is tough to compete with, as he's the cornerstone of a franchise which is probably headed to the playoffs for the first time since 1992.  In addition, McCutchen is one of the few five-tool players in baseball, meaning that he's contributing across the board, not just with his bat or glove.   Regardless, it will be interesting to see if any of these players steps it up down the stretch, as McCutchen doesn't have the award in his grasp by any means.  However, if each of these players continues to perform at the same rate they have throughout 2013, my money is on Andrew McCutchen to win the 2013 NL MVP Award.