Can the Lions Rebound?

As a Detroit sports fan, I've been spoiled over the past decade.  The Detroit Pistons won an NBA title in 2004, the Red Wings won Stanley Cups in 2002 and 2008, the Tigers are in the World Series for the 2nd time in the past seven years, and the Lions are finally relevant again.  In spite of the Pistons current struggles, it's been a fantastic time to be a fan of Motor City teams... until now. Let's face it. The Detroit Lions won't be making the playoffs again this year and here's three reasons why:

(1) A tougher schedule

Considering the Lions finished 2nd in their division last year, they play the 2nd place finishers in the other NFC divisions. Those teams are as follows: Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Arizona.  The Lions already escaped with a victory against the Eagles, and should have some trouble with the Cardinals despite their poor quarterback play.  The Falcons? Currently the only undefeated team in the NFL and a passing attack that should obliterate the Lions secondary.  Not looking good so far.

Stafford hasn't been as sharp in 2012

Divisional opponents have also improved this year.  The Packers are still loaded on offense and should make the playoffs despite a sub par defense. The Bears already have a victory against the Lions and have looked sharp on offense and defense (not so much on offense against us Monday night).  Most importantly, the Vikings are respectable again this year, and are off to a fast start. It will be tough to catch all three of these teams from the bottom of the NFC North.

(2) Matt Stafford

Coming off a fantastic year last season, expectations were high for the Lions 4th year QB.  However, 2011 was the first full season Stafford had put together.  Defenses hadn't had a chance to put forth schemes designated to stop him and the Lions passing game.  This year, Stafford is facing more pressure.  Although he isn't taking more sacks or throwing more interceptions than last season, Stafford's YPA (Yards Per Attempt) is down to 6.64 to 7.60 from last season, while his completion percentage is slightly lower, falling from 63% in 2011 to 62% in 2012.  Those declines may be minimal statistically, but the offense has clearly had more issues moving the ball and scoring in 2012 than it had in 2011.

(3) Defense

Statistically, defense hasn't changed much for the Lions in 2012 than in 2011.  This is concerning though, as the Lions still have to play Green Bay twice and the Houston Texans once, two very high scoring teams.  Below I've assembled a chart to document the Lions defensive struggles.  2012 statistics have been multiplied to average out to the stats of a 16-game season.

YEAR	Sacks	TO	Yards Allowed	Points Allowed
2011	41	34	367.6	387
2012	45	16	319.3	400

Suh and the rest of the Lions D will need to force more turnovers

Clearly the difference between this year and last is the lack of turnovers forced.  The Lions have essentially gone from forcing two turnovers per game to one.  Part of the problem is a struggling secondary.  Opposing teams know that the strength of the Lions defense is their front seven, which gives them an advantage with their play calling.  The Lions must overcompensate on their secondary coverage, which allows opposing teams to run the ball more effectively, as the Lions are afraid of giving up big plays.  This overcompensation is evident in the current defensive statistics, as the Lions are currently allowing only 210 passing YPG, good for 6th among NFL defenses, yet are allowing 109 rushing YPG, good for 16th among NFL defenses despite their strong defensive front.

Can the Lions overcome these issues on both sides of the ball to make the playoffs?  I highly doubt it. The NFC conference as a whole is much stronger than the AFC, and the Lions division is extremely competitive.  Even if we start forcing more turnovers on defense and the offense starts clicking, it will be tough to overcome our current deficit in the NFC North. Unfortunately for Lions fans like myself, the playoffs look like an extreme long shot in 2012.