In Light of The NFL Concussion Settlement: Is Playing Football Worth It?

As reported late last week, a $765 million settlement was reached between players who sued the league over concussion related injuries.  $675 million of the $765 million will be used to compensate former players and families of deceased players (ESPN).  For current football players at all levels of the game, this settlement is arguably encouraging, as the NFL clearly understands the future side effects and trauma players can endure from football related injuries.  But for players already suffering from debilitating and traumatic brain injuries, this settlement is too little and too late. 

Junior Seau for the San Diego Chargers

Just last year we saw Junior Seau, one of the best linebackers in the NFL in the 1990's and early 2000's, take his own life shortly after being diagnosed with CTE. CTE, an acronym for chronic traumatic encephalopathy, has been found in the autopsies of several other deceased former-NFL players.  Although there is still much more research to be done on CTE, there is definitely some link between head drama, collisions, and CTE.  Not only are former NFL players suffering from CTE, but also dementia and Alzheimers.  In the recent $765 settlement, the NFL said it would award up to $5 million to former players with Alzheimers, $4 million to those with CTE, and $4 million to those with dementia. On the surface, these settlements may seem generous, but in actuality, they're a slap in the face.  These former player's won't recover from these brain diseases, and despite being able to afford the best treatment available, their quality of life will only continue to decline. 

As research continues to pour in and former NFL players continue to suffer, current football players at all levels will have to decide: is playing football worth it?  Football presents itself with an interesting opportunity cost: discounting future utility for present utility.  Is it worth it to play a game that you love to play if it will adversely affect one's mental health and quality of life in the future? In recent year's players like Barry Sanders have walked away from the game at a young age, arguably to avoid taking a beating on the field that would hurt them down the line.  I'm interested to see if many current and future players follow in his footsteps and stop the damage before it's too late. 

January 6th NFL Preview

Hi guys, I'm going to try and update more frequently, been really busy with works/friends/etc but there's always more time in the day to pursue your interests!  Today's entry is just a quick preview and predictions for the Baltimore Ravens vs Indianapolis Colts and Washington Redskins vs Seattle Seahawks games. 

I chose not to write about yesterday's games because the outcomes seemed pretty obvious.  The Bengals offense is so one-dimensional, it ebbs and flows through AJ Green, so if Houston shut him down they'd win.  Easier said then done, but Houston held Green to 5 catches for 80 yards on 11 targets, and Andy Dalton to 127 yards on 14/30 passing, which is abysmal.  The Packers vs Vikings game had some intrigue to it considering the Vikings pulled off an impressive upset last week at Mall Of America field, but winning at Lambeau Field in the playoffs would've been a totally different animal.

Baltimore Ravens vs Indianapolis Colts

Andrew Luck's had a great rookie year, but can he win a road playoff game?

I look for this to be a close game between two teams that have potent, but not explosive offenses, and mediocre defenses.  The Indianapolis Colts have already exceeded expectations this season, following a 2-14 record in 2011, overcoming the absence of their coach Chuck Pagano who was diagnosed and treated for Leukemia this fall.  On the other hand, Baltimore has disappointed recently, losing four of it's past games to end the season at 10-6.  Despite their recent struggles, I still like Baltimore in this game.  Not only are they playing at home, but they also have a QB in Joe Flacco who's in the postseason for a fifth time in a row.  I believe that Flacco's playoff experience vs Andrew Luck's inexperience makes the difference in this game.  Also, the Ravens should be able to establish a decent running game is this matchup, whereas the Colts will probably struggle with that.

Make it: Ravens 24 - Colts 13

Washington Redskins vs Seattle Seahawks

Griffin has drawn most the press, but Wilson has had a fantastic year too

This matchup is arguably the most intriguing of the Wild Card Round of the NFL playoffs.  Two rookie quarterbacks who exceeded expectations during the regular season are unlikely opponents in the playoffs.  Part of me wants to pick Washington, considering they're playing at home and have won their past seven games.  Conversely, another part of me wants to pick Seattle, because they've won their past five games, including a 58-0 thrashing of Arizona, a 50-17 beatdown of Buffalo, and then a 42-13 victory of the #2 seeded San Francisco 49ers.  Both these team's offenses are clicking at the right time, but I think the Seattle defense will rise to the occasion better than the Washington defense.  I know that the Seahawks hold arguably the best home-field advantage in football, and this game is on the road, but I just can't see them dropping a game to Washington after what they've been doing to teams recently.  As great as RGIII, Alfred Morris, and the rest of the team have played the past two months to sneak into the playoffs, I think the ride ends hear against a Seahawks team that sports a much better defense than Philadelphia or Dallas, who the Redskins beat four times combined to make the playoffs.

Make it: Seahawks 27 - Redskins 24

It's AP vs Peyton, but why not Aaron?

In a scintillating finish to the NFL regular season, both Peyton Manning and Adrian Peterson capped off their respectively impressive seasons with strong performances.  Peyton carved up the lowly Kansas City Chiefs to the tune of 23-29 for 304 yards and three touchdowns in a 38-3 victory, while AP ran train over the Green Bay Packers for the 2nd time this year, willing the Minnesota Vikings to a 37-34 victory and a wild card slot with 199 yards on 34 carries, and a touchdown thru the air and on the ground.  The Vikings will travel to Lambeau Field to play the Packers for a third time in the first round of the playoffs next week.  Considering both Peterson and Manning overcame career-threatening injuries, their cases for MVP are certainly more compelling than say Tom Brady's, who's put together a fantastic season, but without the flash or intrigue of Manning or Peterson. 

Rodgers followed up his 2011 MVP season with a strong 2012

At this point it's probably a toss up between AP and Peyton for the MVP award, and I'm not necessarily saying that neither of them deserve it.  But, I truly feel that Aaron Rodgers presents just as convincing of a case for MVP as Manning.  Clearly Rodgers hasn't been the most outstanding player, as AP and Megatron stand out as the players with the most outsanding performances throughout the season, but I think his hat deserves to be in the ring for the most valuable player alongside Manning and Peterson.  Considering his position, I won't try and compare Rodgers statistics to those of Adrian Peterson.  What I will do is present his case along side Peyton Manning's.

Presented below is a table comparing Rodgers stats from 2012 to his numbers in 2011:

Year	Pass Yards	Pass TD’s	INT	Comp %	Rating	QBR	Rush Yd/TD
2011	4,643	45	6	68.3	122.5	86.2	257/3
2012	4,295	39	8	67.2	107.8	72.4	259/2

As you can see, Rodgers numbers have dropped off from his MVP season last year, which is understandable.  The Green Bay Packers finished the regular season at 15-1 last year, but dropped to 11-5 this year against albeit a more difficult schedule, and amidst a plethora of injuries to some key players.  I'll discuss the shortcomings of the rest of the Packers squad shortly, but first let's compare Rodgers performance to Peyton Manning and the value of each teams respective defenses.

Here's a side by side of Rodgers vs. P. Manning in 2012:

Player	Pass Yards	Pass TD’s	INT	Comp %	Rating	QBR	Rush Yd/TD
Manning	4,659	37	11	68.8	106.3	85.0	6/0
Rodgers	4,295	39	8	67.2	107.8	72.4	259/2

Manning had a fantastic year for Denver but benefited from weak competition

In terms of statistical contributions to their team's, it seems as though Manning and Rodgers are in a deadlock.  Manning passed for more yards, held a slightly higher completion percentage, and scored higher in QBR (Total Quarterback Rating), while Rodgers had a better TD/INT ratio, a slightly higher rating, and ran the ball significantly better.  Although Manning had more passing yards, Manning also faced the Oakland Raiders 28th ranked defense and the Kansas City Chiefs 25th ranked defense a total of four times, while Rodgers faced the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd ranked defenses of Seattle, San Francisco, and Chicago, respectively a total of four times. 

Quality of the opposition is a significant reason to put Rodgers in the conversation with Manning for MVP. But how about value to his respective team? Let's do a side by side of the defenses of both the Packers and Broncos this year, which should accentuate Rodgers value even more.

Team	Points Allowed	PPG	YPG	TO	Sacks
Packers	336	21	336.8	15	51
Broncos	289	18.06	290.8	24	25

Besides sacks, which the Packers led the NFL in, the Broncos were clearly the superior team on defense.  This defense led the Broncos to the AFC West Title last season (sorry guys, it wasn't Tim Tebow's doing) and dominated it's divisional opponents again this year.  Does a strong defense diminish Peyton Manning's contributions as a player? Absolutely not.  But does it diminish his value compared to Aaron Rodgers? Absolutely.  Rodgers faced more adversity regarding not only his opponents, but also with injuries within his team.  To name a few, Charles Woodson, Clay Mathews, Greg Jennings, and Jordy Nelson all missed significant time with injuries this season.  All of those players have been significant contributors to the success of the Green Bay Packers the past few seasons.  The fact that Rodgers led the Packers to an 11-5 record and the NFC North Division Title speaks volumes about his value to the Green Bay Packers, and exemplifies why he should be considered for the Most Valuable Player award for the 2012 NFL season.