Analyzing the James Harden Trade

In the biggest transaction since the Dwight Howard blockbuster this summer, Oklahoma City traded James Harden to the Houston Rockets this past weekend.  The Thunder also included Cole Aldrich, Daequan Cook, and Lazar Haywood with Harden, in exchange for Kevin Martin, Jeremy Lamb, two first-round picks, and a second round pick.  The reasoning behind this deal?  OKC was unwilling to offer Harden a max contract of $60 million over for years, so it made sense to trade him now as opposed to letting him walk at the end of the year.  Let's take a look at the assets OKC acquired in the trade:

Will Martin be able to make up for the loss of Harden?

(1) Kevin Martin

Martin has been a solid SG in the NBA for quite a while, putting up excellent numbers for both the Sacramento Kings and the Rockets over the past six seasons. Although Martin is an injury risk, he's been dynamic when available, averaging over 18 ppg during his NBA career.  In addition, he's in the final year of his contract, so he could be a valuable trade deadline piece if OKC wants to trade for a scorer in the front court to keep up with the Los Angeles Lakers in the Western Conference.

(2) Jeremy Lamb

An explosive guard out of UConn, Lamb was drafted #12 overall by the Rockets in this summer's draft. Although he has a high ceiling, I'm not sure how Lamb fits into the plans for OKC.  They already have Russell Westbrook at PG and a capable backup in Eric Maynor.  Maybe OKC is playing me and already has plans to trade him in the near future, but I just don't see how he fits their current team.

(3) Draft Picks

OKC received three draft picks, two 1st rounders and a 2 round pick, in the trade.  At first glance, this makes the trade look like a steal for OKC. Two first-round picks for a player that was going to leave via free agency once the season ended?!

Not so fast.  One of these picks Houston received from the Toronto Raptors in the Kyle Lowry trade.  Unfortunately for the Thunder, this pick is lottery protected, thus cannot be a top-15 draft pick.  The second 1st round pick they received was from the Lakers, so most likely that pick will be somewhere in the mid-20's. Considering how top-heavy recent draft classes have been, it'll be very difficult, if not impossible, for the Thunder to find someone as valuable as Harden in the draft.

Thus, were the Rockets the 'winners' of this trade? Let's investigate

Harden should lead the Rockets for the next 5 years

Not including the rest of the players OKC sent to Houston as filler, is Harden, who just signed a five year $80 million dollar extension, worth it for the Houston Rockets?  I believe so.  Houston hasn't had a dynamic shooting guard since Tracy McGrady, and praise Kevin Martin as much as you want for his shooting ability, but Harden can contribute in all facets of the game.  I think Harden will be able to make the Rockets 'his team' and take on large scoring and leadership roles. 

In addition, the Rockets are establishing a strong young core. Daryl Morey and co have assembled a very young starting lineup of Jeremy Lin, Harden, Chandler Parsons, Marcus Morris, and Omer Asik.  In fact, if you look at the Rockets roster, they only have one player older than 26!  With a bunch of young pieces in place, the Rockets look to not only improve this year, but possibly contend by 2014 or 2015.  Oklahoma City, on the other hand, just lost a player that they will have an extremely hard time replacing.  I would say that the Rockets were the clear winners in this deal, and look forward to seeing their team improve throughout this season.